Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Makro, indeks, valuta 2

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South Florida resident Jamie Wolf, who is a single mother raising three children, says her landlord is raising their rent by nearly $1,000 per month — a 30% hike.

Utleiere er nok livredde for politikere med vedtaksvilje etter pandemien. Kan fort få rent control med påfølgende katastrofe. Her må alt opp så ikke huseier blir sittende med tapsprosjekter inn i evigheten.

“We’re going to have a massive increase in homelessness. I don’t even think we have reached the tip of the iceberg on this,” Stanley said. “And that’s what scares all of us.”

Ja, er nok mange som er rimelig redde for konsekvensene av inflasjon i USA nå.

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At utleiere kan få det tøffere gjør ingenting. Det har vært alt for enkelt å tjene penger på utleie, og det er med på å drepe muligheten normale folk har til å kjøpe seg noe eget. Men deg gjør kanskje ikke noe, for det nye nå er tydeligvis at du ikke skal eie og fremdeles være happy. Lurer på hvem som har funnet på det? Mannen i gata?

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Kjøp boligen sammen med OBOS, så eier man hvertfall 50% av noe. Bare at de reklamerer for det sier litt om hvor fucked førstegangs kjøpere er :nauseated_face:

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Det er jo en fin måte å fordele risiko også, og når Obos tilbyr dette sier det også litt om hva de tror om boligpriser i fremtiden.

Bedre å eie 50% enn ikke noe vel?
Man sparer via avdrag + får skattefradrag på renter.
Alternativet er å leie🤷‍♂️

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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-14/china-could-fix-egypt-s-wheat-shortage-caused-by-russia-s-war-in-ukraine

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Faced with cooling relations in Washington, Sisi has made strenuous efforts to improve relations with Beijing in recent years. Egypt arrested and deported Uyghur Muslims in a crackdown beginning in 2017 and wrote to the United Nations in support of China’s policy in Xinjiang in 2019. Those actions may have been morally repugnant, but none of them were easy moves, politically. Sisi even turned up for the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics last month, despite Egypt not fielding any athletes in the event.

With the strengthening of the NATO coalition since the start of the Ukraine war, Beijing should have strong interests in cultivating its relationship with Egypt, a growing authoritarian middle power that controls a vital trade route and a pivotal position in the Middle East.

The most vital question for President Xi Jinping may be how he handles diplomacy between Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington — but how he treats Cairo will be crucial, too. The countries that will cement the strongest international ties in a century of growing food insecurity are those that are most prepared to share their bounty with their allies.

Interessant perspektiv. Muligheter for Egypt å knyttes nærmere Kina, og deres allierte framover.

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En Tråd

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US 10 Year Note Bond Yield (percent) 2.2207 +0.0752 (+3.50%)

FED oppsummert: “vi tror inflasjonen stort sett fikser seg selv i andre halvår, err, neste år. Btw, ingen resesjon, for alt er sterkt. Men vi følger med, og vi har alle verktøy tilgjengelig til å løse dette problemet.” Og de skal nok sette i gang med quantative tightening (selge assets) snart… må bare bli enige først. Kanskje allerede i mai…

Min tolkning: de vil egentlig se an til juni hva som skjer. De er mer eller mindre all in på “dette fikser seg selv nå som vi ikke lenger driver med QE.” Hvis de faktisk trodde at de måtte gjøre noe med inflasjon så er dette alt for lite, siden de har vært for sene med å reagere.

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What 70 years of data reveals about the Federal Reserve causing recessions

For those concerned the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates will tip the economy into a recession sooner rather than later, try this data set on for size.

It takes around three years from the first Fed hike to enter a recession, according to 70 years of data on rate increasing cycles crunched by Deutsche Bank.

The quickest recession could be traced back to July 1981.

Under then chairman Paul Volcker, the Fed began increasing rates in August 1980 to cool double-digit percentage consumer price inflation (sound familiar?). About 11 months later, the economy was in a recession, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis.

The longest it took to enter recession after the first rate hike was 84 months.

Deutsche Bank notes interest rates were first increased in May 1983, continuing to August 1984. By July 1990, the U.S. was in a recession.

“Not every Fed hiking cycle leads to a recession, but all hiking cycles that invert the curve have led to recessions within 1 to 3 years,” said Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid.

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En ting er hva de sier en annen er hva de gjør. 40 tallet here we come. Ikke faen om de har råd til å heve renta nok til å ta livet av inflasjonen og samtidig ikke ødelegge økonomien ?

Bond issues are a monetary policy device, not a funding device.

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Det morsomme er at man jo har løsningen hvis man først går full MMT:

  • Drep statsobligasjonsmarkedet.
  • Hev skattene for å drepe etterspørselen.
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I believe the Fed has not internalized the magnitude of its errors over the past year, is operating with an inappropriate and dangerous framework, and needs to take far stronger action to support price stability than appears likely. The Fed’s current policy trajectory is likely to lead to stagflation, with average unemployment and inflation both averaging over 5 percent over the next few years — and ultimately to a major recession.

Larry Summers altså, dommedagsprofet. Forstår ikke at dette går riktige veien.

To prevent inflation from metastasizing, Powell and his colleagues need to be absolutely clear on two propositions that Volcker took as axiomatic.

First, price stability is essential for sustained maximum employment, while overheating the economy leads to stagflation and higher levels of average unemployment through time.

Second, there can be no reliable progress against inflation without substantial increases in real interest rates, which mean temporary increases in unemployment. Real short-term interest rates are currently lower than at any point in decades. They likely will have to reach levels of at least 2 or 3 percent for inflation to be brought under control. With inflation running above 3 percent, this means rates of 5 percent or more — something markets currently regard as almost unimaginable.

Central to success in fighting inflation is establishing credibility that a new paradigm is in place. Recognizing failed strategies, and then abandoning them, is the first step.

Som om FED gjør feil liksom? Amatør.

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Hvorfor blir ikke inflasjonen drept med økte energipriser, renter og mat?

Et par år med ok/dårlige lønnsoppgjør så er vi der?