Litt i samme gate, muligens, Mexico vurderer å sende oljen sin til Europa og Asia i stedet som følge av tollkrigen med USA
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Største bevegelse Usd/eur på 16 år, leste jeg et sted…
Ingen tvil om at det er en stor dag/uke bevegelse. Skal en del mer til for at det virkelig skal monne da.
En til som tenker i samme gate
" – Jeg mener det er lurt å skifte fra USA til Europa. Jeg tror de lange konsekvensene av det som skjer nå er bra for Europa og negativt for USA, sier han."
Peter Hermanrud har sikret deler av porteføljen: – Jeg har ikke sett på maken | Finansavisen
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Inflasjon overrasker på oppsiden, får vi aldri denne renta ned igjen da?
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Nei kanskje ikke, men synes økonomien absorberer det tålig bra?
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Grep Trump har gjort:
- Økte toller → økte priser, økt inflasjon
- Kutt i offentlig pengebruk → redusert inflasjon og stagnasjon (pga redusert etterspørsel)
- Redusert tilliten til amerikansk forsvarsindustri → redusert etterspørsel, stagnasjon
- Redusert hjelp til Ukraina → mindre penger til å erstatte det som blir sendt som hjelp → stagnasjon
Spørsmålet er jo hvor kjapt produksjon blir flyttet til USA?
Europa har vel enda ikke fått økte tollsatser? Samtidig, så vil Europa øke militærbudsjettet som vil virke inflaterende. Når man ser på land som Frankrike, så var det kanskje god timing?
Btw, det er ganske drøye tall for budsjettunderskudd i flere land nå Budget deficits by country of the world - Pravda EN
1994-2000, 2003-2007, 2011-2019 and 2021-2024
• USA: 0.0, -3.4, -5.6 and -7.4%
• Japan: -5.8, -4.6, -5.1 and -5.2%
• Germany: -3.6, -2.4, 0.7 and -2.5%
• United Kingdom: -2.1, -3.0, -4.6 and -5.7%
• France: -3.3, -3.4, -4.0 and -5.7%
• Italy: -4.7, -3.1, -2.6 and -7.0%
• Korea: 1.8, 1.2, 1.3 and -0.7%
• Canada: -1.6, 1.2, -0.8 and -1.3%
• Spain: -2.2, -2.3, -5.9 and -4.6%
• Australia: -1.0, 1.5, -2.9 and -2.8%.
Frankrike, UK og Italia er skikkelig ute på tur i tillegg til USA.
Frankrike har budsjettert med 5,4% underskudd i 2025. Da er ikke forsvarssatsingen som nylig ble vedtatt tatt med. https://www.economie.gouv.fr/actualites/budget-2025-redresser-les-finances-publiques-et-proteger-les-francais
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Økt investering i US kan vi vel legge til. 1 trillion per mnd ca?
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Basically gir en aldrende demografi en synkende nøytral rente, mens økt offentlig bruk på forsvar og klimaomstillinger (les det grønne skiftet) gir en økende nøytral rente.
Det er basic economics fra Norges Bank.
I seg selv gir dyr energi økt inflasjon, og lave gasslagre vil sørge for fortsatt press på strømprisen i Europa, og Norge i 2025.
Kan ikke være tvil om at Europa vil slite med høy inflasjon i årene som kommer.
Når man nå også setter ned renta i EU så er det ikke rart europeiske børser går bra. Det blir det stedet å være hvis man vil beholde noe av verdiene og kjøpekraften sin. Gitt at noe ikke ryker.
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Lav inflasjon i Frankrike, Tyskland og Italia. Høy inflasjon i UK.
Frankrike
Tyskland
Italia
UK
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Er bak betalingsmur
Ser ut til at det er snakk om 125mrd/året fra Apple. Vet ikke hvor mye de pleier å investere.
Det ser ut som det er ca det samme som de sa de ville investere i 2018 og i 2021, hvis man justerer for inflasjon. Mao, hvor mye av dette er pga Trump sin politikk? 
- How much incremental new spending does the $500 billion represent? For context, not long after Biden’s presidency began in 2021 — notice the timing — Apple committed $430 billion in U.S. spending across five years, so 2025 is presumably included in both pledges. That makes the math fuzzier. We should not forget, either, that inflation since April 2021 has totaled 18.8%, so that annualized number is a lot lower than it looks, especially with the 2025 overlap.
- How much of the $430 billion pledge announced in 2021 was actually spent? It would be great to see a breakdown of that spending, but as far as I know there isn’t one available for public consumption. The same applies to Apple’s January 2018 pledge to invest $350 billion in the U.S. spread across five years. I think you see the trend.
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Apple
Announced : $500 billion domestically over the next four years
Previously : Apple was already expected to spend $10.8 billion on capital expenditures this year. Its operating expenses totaled $57.5 billion in 2024.
Jobs : 20,000
Location : Houston and Detroit
On Monday, Apple announced what the company described as its biggest US commitment to date. The tech giant is planning to hire 20,000 new workers, produce AI servers in the US and altogether spend $500 billion domestically over the next four years. Investments will include the opening of a new server manufacturing facility in Houston, a supplier academy in Michigan and additional spending with its existing suppliers in the country.
The announcement came days after Trump and Apple Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook met, after which Trump suggested that Cook planned to invest “hundreds of billions of dollars.”
Stargate Project
Announced : As much as $500 billion
Previously : Stargate is a new JV, but OpenAI had been pitching a plan for a massive data center build-out in the US for months, initially to the Biden administration
Jobs : “Hundreds of thousands”
Location : Texas, initially
On Jan. 21 — the day after Trump was inaugurated — ChatGPT developer OpenAI, SoftBank and software giant Oracle Corp., announced a joint venture to develop AI infrastructure across the US. The firms said they plan to invest as much as $500 billion over the next four years — but are focused on a $100 billion deployment initially — on projects that they estimated would create “hundreds of thousands of American jobs.”
Stargate’s first project is a data center complex that spans about 875 acres in Abilene, Texas, that will eventually be used to power AI systems.
The joint venture marketed the project as a means of supporting the “reindustrialization of the United States” and protecting “the national security of America and its allies.” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman had been pitching the Biden administration on a massive AI infrastructure build-out last year.
SoftBank
Announced : $100 billion
Previously : SoftBank had been laying out plans for months to invest further in AI semiconductors, data centers and robots. Its Vision Fund invested $500 million in the leading US AI startup OpenAI and launched a $1.5 billion tender to buy more stock from OpenAI employees last year.
Jobs : 100,000
Location : Texas, for one, through Stargate JV
In December, Trump announced that SoftBank planned to invest $100 billion in the US over the next four years during an event alongside CEO Masayoshi Son. The plan includes a pledge to create 100,000 jobs focused on artificial intelligence and related infrastructure, including investments in data centers, semiconductors and energy, according to a person familiar with the plan.
The announcement immediately prompted the question of where the company will get the capital for its latest pledge. During Trump’s last term, Son was raising his $100 billion Vision Fund with money from outside investors and poured the cash into startups such as WeWork, Uber Technologies Inc. and DoorDash Inc. SoftBank doesn’t have the cash on hand to deliver on Son’s pledge this time.
Meta
Announced : $65 billion
Previously : Meta’s capital spending was expected to total nearly $60 billion this year. Its operating expenses topped $64 billion last year.
Jobs : N/A
Location : Louisiana, for one
Meta Platforms Inc. plans to invest as much as $65 billion on projects related to artificial intelligence in 2025, including building a data center “so large that it would cover a significant part of Manhattan,” CEO Mark Zuckerberg Meta was already heavily investing in AI. Less than three months earlier, Zuckerberg had warned investors that Meta planned to “significantly accelerate” its capital spending in 2025 to bet on AI and the metaverse. The company had announced a $10 billion data center in Louisiana.
Microsoft
Announced : Reiterated plans to invest more than $40 billion on US data centers
Previously : All plans had already been announced
Jobs : Estimated that AI will broadly help create the next “billion AI-enabled jobs”
Location : States including Texas and Arizona
Microsoft has yet to hand Trump a flashy announcement that he can take credit for. But its president, Brad Smith, did write a blog post in January to welcome Trump into the White House — and lay out investments it had already been planning. announced in a Facebook post on Jan. 24.
Meta plans to bring around a gigawatt of computing power online in 2025 and is projected to end the year with more than 1.3 million graphics processing units, the kind of chips critical to running AI systems, Zuckerberg said. He also said the company will “significantly” expand its AI teams, without quantifying the number of jobs to be created.
Damac
Announced : At least $20 billion
Previously : Damac had already been laying the groundwork for a larger foray into the data centers business. Edgnex Data Centers, a unit of the Dubai-based conglomerate, had plans to invest $3 billion over the next three to five years in data centers in Southeast Asia.
Jobs : “Thousands”
Location : Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana
Since Trump was first elected in 2016, Hussain Sajwani, the head of Damac Group, wanted the world to know he was the US president’s man in the Middle East. The real estate billionaire thrust himself into the spotlight again in January, standing alongside Trump and promising an investment of at least $20 billion to build new US data centers from Arizona to Ohio.
The details of how Sajwani — whose net worth has surged in recent years to about $13 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index — will finance such an undertaking weren’t immediately apparent. Sajwani, who is likely to lean heavily on banks and other financial institutions for much of that investment, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that Damac’s balance sheet would allow it to fund about 30%.
Trump said the first phase of Damac’s plan would span Texas, Arizona, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana. Damac has said the investment is expected to create “thousands of jobs” where the data centers are built.
Amazon
Announced : $11 billion
Previously : Amazon had laid out plans to spend tens of billions of dollars on new data centers long before Trump was elected. The company was already expected to drop nearly $100 billion on capital expenditures this year and had $243 billion in operating expenses last year.
Jobs : At least 550
Location : Georgia
In January, Amazon Web Services pledged to invest an estimated $11 billion in Georgia to expand infrastructure to support AI and cloud technologies. The investment is expected to create at least 550 new high-skilled jobs, according to the company’s press release.
As part of the investment plan, the company will build new data centers in Butts County, Russ Crumbley, chairman of the Butts County board of commissioners, said in the statement.
Anduril
Announced : Nearly $1 billion
Previously : Anduril had already said in August 2024 that it was planning to invest hundreds of millions of dollars on a new facility.
Jobs : 4,000 directly, and another 8,500 to sustain operations
Location : Ohio
Defense tech startup Anduril Industries Inc. announced in January that it had chosen Ohio as the location of a sprawling new manufacturing facility that will produce tens of thousands of autonomous systems and weapons annually. Co-founder Palmer Luckey had previously said he expected the California-based weapons technology startup to thrive under the Trump administration.
Anduril aims to secure final approvals to begin modernizing an existing facility on-site in coming weeks, and expects to begin producing weapons by July 2026. Anduril expects to invest nearly $1 billion in the new facility, which it says will create 4,000 jobs directly, and another 8,500 jobs to sustain operations.
The startup had been planning the new facility long before Trump was elected. In August 2024, after raising $1.5 billion in a new funding round, the company said it planned to spend hundreds of millions on the new site.
Men du må jo se dette i sammenheng med hva de sa de skulle gjøre i 2021, som var 430 mrd USD på 5 år. De sier nå 500 mrd USD over 4 år. Er dette virkelig 500 mrd dollar ekstra? Nei.
Det er lett å bli blendet, men det var ikke som om Apple ikke kom til å investere noe i 2025-28 uten Trump…
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2021 er 4 år siden 
nyheten kommer dagen etter Cook er hos Trump på smiskebesøk
Altså, Apple er ikke dumme, selvfølgelig gjør de det sånn! Hvis du ikke smisker med Trump, så får du støvelen.
Poenget mitt er at dette ikke er 500 mrd dollar ekstra investeringer. Hvis man ser på tallene over, så går de fra 430 mrd/5 år til 500 mrd/4 år. Hvis man inflasjonsjusterer, så blir det 504/5 vs 500/4 = 100 vs 125. Dvs at investeringstakten har gått fra 100 mrd/året til 125 mrd/året. Er det pga Trump? Kan godt være.
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Dette er reshoring/nearshoring understøttet av både supply chain risiko etter korona og sikkerhetshensyn. Bilbransjen kan jo ikke flytte en fabrikk til USA når Trump skifter mening fra dag til dag. Markedet reagerte positivt på en måneds utsettelse, men jeg skjønner ikke hva de skal få utrettet på en måned. Jeg tolker markedets reaksjon som en forhåpning om at Trump kommer til å innkassere en eller annen seier som gjør at tollen kan utsettes.
Svarte på to innlegg i ett, ble kanskje litt rotete
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Eller at tollen blir avlyst. Det er ikke som om det ville vært overraskende om Trump snudde på en femøring.
Ja ok, men avlyst/utsettes blir jo litt av det samme når han fremstår så uberegnelig og gir markedet 'tariff whiplash '. For øvrig er det allerede toll på biler mellom usa og eu. 10 % for import til eu og 2,5 % til USA. Men usa har 25 % på pick up som er et kjempestort marked i USA.
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