Fortsetter diskusjonen om MicroStrategy fra Bitcoin:
Det er en ting som er greit få med seg her, arrester meg om noen mener noe annet, er at MS tjener pengene sine delvis på aksjonærene. De tjener selvfølgelig på at BTC øker i verdi; men mye av strategien er å finne arbitage mellom BTC, egen aksjekurs samt ta opp lån via obligasjoner for å spille på veksten til BTC kontra FIAT…
Normalt er det gunstigst å investere der pengestrømmen går fra selskap til aksjonærer, ikke motsatt…
Dvs langsiktige investorer kan gjøre det bra her, men kortsiktige investorer får oddsen rigget litt mot seg siden noe av pengene av og til suges inn i selskapet på bekostning av kortsiktig kursutvikling.
1 Like
Enig, det uttalte målet til Saylor og co. er å øke andelen BTC per aksje i selskapet, så ikke vits å kjøpe hvis man ikke samtidig har tro på BTC og er klar til å se kursen svinge 2/3X mer enn BTC i begge retninger.
1 Like
De blir nok tatt opp i S&P 500 indexen snart. Da er det mye passive penger som skal inn.
Da kan de kjøre arbitagespillet sitt herfra til månen. Sykt at det går an…
Tror de er godt over kravet til markedscap.
- The company should be from the U.S.
- Its market cap must be at least $8.2 billion.
- Its shares must be highly liquid.
- At least 50% of its outstanding shares must be available for public trading.
- It must report positive earnings in the most recent quarter.
- The sum of its earnings in the previous four quarters must be positive.
1 Like
Jeg synes det er unødvendig å dra inn PE ratio når det kommer til MS, det holder å se på verdien av selskapet kontra verdien av BTC som de sitter på. Samtidig må de holde selskapet flytende mhp utgifter, men det er vel ikke lenger all verden sammenliknet med det som er av verdier av BTC.
De må også være forsiktig så de ikke knuser kursen i emisjonene for de ønsker mest mulig avvik for å kunne fortsette å utnytte det.
Tenk når indeks-investorer må kjøre pengene sine inn der, de gjør jo ingen fundamentalanalyse så de vil kunne spinne emisjoner i all evighet… Ikke det at det ser ut som noen gjør noen fundamentalanalyse pr idag.
1 Like
Russisk rulett er vel mer det Saylor spiller
2 Likes
Basert på hva da?
Flere som følger med her?
Gikk ganske all in i MSTR i forrige uke, opp 20% siden da.
MSTR ser ut til å gå ca. 3 ganger så høyt som BTC prisen, og jeg tror Bitcoin kommer til å gå til $200 000 i løpet av 2025, så mitt target for MSTR er ca. $1400 (nå: $166).
Dette er min forventning for Bitcoinprisen fremover:
Hvis dette treffer er det en god mulighet til å f.eks kjøpe MSTR i en investeringskonto, selge nær forventet topp i november 2025 (uten å betale skatt), så kjøpe ved bunnen ca. ett år senere og holde til neste topp (så godt det lar seg gjøre).
På sikt kan man i teorien få ca. en 9X i denne syklusen, og ca. 20X i neste. 180X på ca. 5 år. Det er teit mye avkastning 
Er nok en lav sannsynlighet for at alt klaffer, men man trenger jo bare treffe en gang for å bli ganske rik.
Merk at dette kommer til å bli volatilt, så forvent å være mye i minus flere ganger 
8 Likes
For general orientation I thought I would expand on why MSTR trades at a premium vs what its holdings in BTC is worth. The premium means that MSTR shares are bought and sold at a higher (or in some rare occasions lower) value than what the BTC it holds are worth. So for instance, at a given point one MSTR share trades at 160 USD while the BTC that share “owns” is worth 90 USD. The premium is the 70 USD difference. At a cursory glance, this seems irrational as if MSTR decided to go liquidate its business and give its shareholders the BTC it owns you would only get 90 USD worth of BTC for each share you own. But there are explanations as to why MSTR trades with a premium
MSTR is a Business Intelligence (BI) business. MSTR develops and sells BI and more recently artificial intelligence software to businesses primarily to other businesses. This business has a value, although it explains a minor share of why MSTR trades at a premium. For any profit that the BI business generates MSTR buys BTC, but that profit is not MSTRs main way to raise capital to buy BTC.
Somewhat related to their BI business, MSTR also develops various solutions for business problems on top of the BTC blockchain. For instance, a couple of months ago MSTR launched a solution for verifying the sender of emails. The intent is to enable the receiver of the email to be 100% sure that the sender is authentic, designed to combat fraud and similar. This “sub-business” also has value, but is likely barely noticeable in the overall value of MSTR.
For many investors, who believe BTC will rise in value, MSTR is one of the only or easiest ways to gain exposure (= “buy BTC”). The ways investors can gain exposure to BTC is to buy BTC directly on an exchange, buy BTC through an ETP or an ETF (Exchange Traded Products/Funds - an indirect way of owning BTC), or buy shares in companies that are in turn exposed to BTC. The two first ways can be impossible, expensive or carry risks that the investor doesn’t want to take, and hence they want to take the third way. Among the few companies that are exposed to BTC, MSTR is the largest and represents the “purest” way to gain exposure to BTC. Therefore many investors want to own MSTR shares, and bid the shares up in price when buying the shares. This could explain a considerable chunk of the premium that MSTR shares trade at. However, there are arguments as to why it might not explain as much as some analysts claim, as per the explanations below.
MSTR has put into action a smart and risky treasury strategy. The company uses financial engineering to increase the amount of BTC per share for its shareholders. The intent is to year-over-year increase the amount of BTC/share with between 4-8%. MSTR calls this “BTC yield” and measures it continually. During 2024 MSTR surpassed the goal and reached 17% in BTC yield. In short, if you own MSTR shares, MSTR says that over time it will be able to provide you with more BTC. The methods MSTR uses to achieve this involve selling convertible bonds, investing all proceeds from its BI business and selling its own shares. If there’s interest I can give examples of how this is done and what risks it entails.
Because of MSTRs meteoric rise in value due to the treasury strategy other companies have copied the strategy to try to achieve the same results. Examples of companies that do the same are Metaplanet in Japan and Semler Scientific in the US. I expect others to follow MSTR. The “copycats” are much smaller than MSTR.
MSTRs Chairmain, Michael Saylor, actively encourages copycats as the more companies that copy MSTR the better it is for MSTRs shareholders as they bid the price of BTC up when they buy. Ironically this could at the same time mean a diminishing premium for MSTR shares, as it stands to reason that more alternatives for investors should mean that the premium gets “spread out” over those alternatives. MSTR seems confident that the two forces balance each other out or perhaps that the price of BTC overtakes the premium.
This smart and risky treasury explains a large chunk of the premium of MSTR.
- MSTR holds more than 1% of all BTC that will ever exist, which makes it one of the largest BTC holders globally. As believers in BTC project that BTC will become a foundational element of the future global financial system and perhaps the monetary system and the measuring stick for all value, having one of the largest hoards of BTC positions MSTR to be a dominant force in that future financial system and that future monetary system. Exactly what that means nobody knows for certain, but Michael Saylor (and others) predict that BTC will be worth several orders of magnitude of what it is today, as a consequence.
As one example of what that could mean, already today there are methods available for MSTR to earn interest on its holdings of BTC. The offered yield can be as much as 15%. However, these methods involve risk of losing the BTC the lender lends out, i.e. MSTR might lose its BTC if it chooses to lend them out. As of yet, MSTR has not lent out any of its BTC for this reason. However, it seems likely to happen in the future as much larger borrowers emerge. For instance, if large banks, large corporations or nation states want to borrow BTC, the risk of loss of MSTRs BTC when lending it out will be much lower. For any larger borrower, the only actor they can go to is likely MSTR, so MSTR would be incredibly well positioned for such a future.
This factor probably explains another large chunk of MSTRs premium.
Final note: Always do your own research. Investments involve risk, and past performance is no guarantee for future success. MSTRs share price fluctuates wildly, and you should only invest in MSTR at the level of long-term conviction you hold on BTCs future.
Fra shareville
Hvor mye Microstrat har du ?
Nok til at jeg måtte diskutere det med fruen først 
5 Likes
Men ikke så mye at du ikke har turt å fortelle om det?
1 Like
@pdx Eller noen andre som kan dette godt.
Har muligens kjøp ein aksje eg ikkje har heilt kontrollen på, så hjelp tas i mot med takk.
Hva skjedde egentlig den 16 .09 og var dette forventa av dere? Kan vi forvente flere slike eller var dette engangstilfelle?
Kan en si noe om hvor mange ekstra aksjer det kan bli ut av det om det skulle gå den vegen?
Info:
Neste dagene gjekk Bitcoin opp ca 2% og MSTR ned ca 6%
