Photocure er ved første øyekast et bedre alternativ på papiret, helt til man ser at de må ha et sykt stort salgsapperat. Det er nesten så jeg ikke forstår det. Marginene deres er elendige. Det ser heller ikke ut til å bli bedre på større skala.
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Nattopharma opp friske 8% på 5k aksjer. 
Ja interessen for aksjen er fortsatt svært lav, men selgere har begynt å trekke oppover i hvert fall, så de få kjøpere som er der må gå opp i pris.
Hyggelig at det går opp, men måten det går opp på lukter litt. En håndfull aksjer kjøpes og drar kursen opp litt. Så kommer en litt større post til salgs litt under den bittelille posten, Og det er ikke første dag dette skjer. Men for all del. Opp er godt nok for meg.
At det er såpass høy spread og liten interesse for å handle aksjen er nok en av grunnene til den lave kursen. Forhåpentligvis vil vi se en bedring med analysedekning, kvartalsrapporter og økende inntekter.
Den kommer sigende nå. Litt etter litt. 
Nå har Nordea analysen kommet
https://research.nordea.com/Company/Display/14965
Ikke veldig optimistiske når det kommer til kursmål i hvert fall
As a leading producer of vitamin K2 concentrate, NattoPharma is positioned to take its share in the emerging K2 supplements market and has an option on clinical applications of the vitamin. In our base case, we see the company delivering a 27% revenue CAGR and a solid ~5 pp EBITDA margin expansion for 2018-23E. We derive a DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of NOK 12-16 per share in our base case, but also identify a blue-sky DCF scenario that could justify NOK 24-35 per share. Marketing material commissioned by NattoPharma
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Nå har jeg sett litt på analysen, som i utgangspunktet virker grundig og god, men ganske defensiv.
Base case scenario 12-16 kroner er basert på
- Relative høyt avkastningskrav/WACC 10.9%
- Fallende bruttomargin
- Fallende vekst
- Kostnader som vokser med ca 20% årlig
- Ingen inntekter fra nye ingredienser
- Kaydence Pharma null verdi
Så i utgangspunktet dersom analysen slår til så skal man få ca 14 kroner i år, og deretter 10.9% årlig avkastning. Men med ytterligere oppside dersom selskapet leverer bedre på noen av punktene over og/eller dersom selskapet blir mer etablert og investorene senker avkastningskravet.
Fra side 45
Det virker som selv blue sky scenario ikke regner med noen verdi av Kaydence.
Aksjen er billig fordi det er lav likviditet i aksjen og selskapet er lite (side 49)
Whereas the share looks cheap relative to its growth profile, we note that a risk adjustment is likely also fair, as NattoPharma is a small company with exposure to a niche market that has yet to take off. The share is also illiquid. We believe that the peer group does not generally share these risk factors. As such, we argue that NattoPharma’s multiples should be lower than purely growth-adjusted multiples imply.
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Merkelig at selv i et blu sky scenario så tilskrives ikke eierandelen av Kaydence verdi i det hele tatt. Eneste grunnen til det må jo være at Nordeas analytiker ikke har satt seg inn i Kaydence overhodet.
Ellers syns jeg det ser greit ut. Uansett viktig at det kastes litt lys over Natto.
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Ja, for den som ønsket å selge seg ut på en super positiv analyse var nok dette skuffende, men for min egen del synes jeg dette var god og nyttig informasjon. Det er jo også hyggelig dersom Natto klarer å slå analytikernes forventninger, heller det enn å alltid komme inn litt bak skjema. Nå blir det spennende å følge kvartalsrapportene fremover, neste rapport kommer 30. april.
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Fin dag å fiske på i natto, ned 10%. Håper den ikke skal ned til 8 igjen da. Da startet nok fiskinga litt tidlig.
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Her kan man se varesalg målt mot personalkostnader. Ja det har vært en sterk økning av personalkostnader, men de har virkelig fått uttelling for nyansettelsene som er gjort. Liker at det er en utflating mellom h1 og h2, og blir spennende å se utviklingen nå videre i Q1 rapporten.
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28/03-2019 16:45:13: (NATTO.OAX) MANDATORY NOTIFICATION OF TRADE
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Nå krysser snart 50 uker og 200 uker
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Fra denne stillingsannonsen høres det ikke ut som om de forventer veksten skal stoppe helt opp 
Position
NattoPharma is growing, and we are looking for a person to join the group as our new Finance Manager (FM). Reporting to the VP Finance/CFO, the FM will play a critical role in supporting the delivery of accounting and finance related duties, and maintaining and developing the financial processes and governance for the NattoPharma group of companies.
We offer
NattoPharma is a very interesting company in a high growth industry. The position will have international exposure in a challenging and dynamic environment. We are located in modern offices at Lilleaker in Oslo.
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23/04-2019 08:52:50: (NATTO.OAX) INVITATION TO PRESENTATION OF FIRST QUARTER 2019 FINANCIAL RESULTS
24 April 2019
Dear Kaydence Pharma shareholders:
Kaydence Pharma AS officially started on our path as an early stage pharmaceutical company. We are focused exclusively on the therapeutic
development of menaquinone-7 (MQ-7), a form of vitamin K2. MQ-7 is a novel drug candidate intended to address vascular calcification and the associated loss of arterial flexibility. Vascular calcification is implicated in multiple cardiovascular and renal (kidney) diseases, and as of today there are no available therapies to treat this condition. Within chronic kidney disease (CKD), vascular calcification is the major cause of medical hardship and mortality. A successful development program could have profound implications for millions of CKD patients, with the additional potential to address cardiovascular disease conditions beyond CKD.
The growing CKD patient population is driven by several demographic factors. Between the United States and the EU, it is estimated that there are over 40 million patients with moderate to severe stages of CKD. Data show that the vast majority of these patients are either suffering from or are susceptible to arterial stiffening and the associated complications. For Kaydence, this means that MQ-7 could represent a critical disease management tool.
Progress and tracking
Our pharmaceutical development path is a multi-year undertaking, and we are tracking our progress against a comprehensive 5-year Integrated Development Plan that we developed early last year.
One of the first, and most significant, near-term milestones in our plan was the conducting of a Pre-IND (Investigational New Drug) meeting with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
In November 2018 we successfully completed this pre-IND meeting. In this face-to-face interactive session, we addressed questions regarding key components of our planned IND application and the clinical/regulatory pathway for MQ-7 for treatment of arterial stiffness in stable renal transplant recipients. Several aspects of the meeting were noteworthy:
• We reached agreement with the FDA on the non-clinical requirements for the IND supporting the planned first-in-human (FIH) study for MQ-7.
• We achieved alignment on key components of the design for the FIH study, including the ability to conduct the study in the target patient population (renal transplant patients.)
• We gained FDA input and guidance on our clinical and regulatory development pathway. Importantly, the FDA has agreed to meet with us following completion of the FIH study to continue discussions regarding the Phase 2 and Phase 3 development programs.
It has been an eventful twelve months and it is a pleasure to now share this operational update with
you. Thank you for your patience as I realize we are certainly overdue for this communication. Our
intention, starting with this letter, is to provide shareholder updates via email once per quarter.
Kaydence Pharma focus
With the spin-off from NattoPharma ASA in December 2017,
Kaydence Pharma AS
Norway: Lilleakerveien 2B, N-0283 Oslo
USA: 317 George St., Suite 320, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
[email protected] www.kaydencepharma.com
In summary, we were very pleased with our first significant interaction with the FDA and believe that it represents not just a significant milestone, but also an important risk-lowering step in our plan.
We have also made steady progress on other key elements of our Development Plan, including:
• successfully completing the initial safety studies on MQ-7;
• auditing and approving our CRO (contract research) and CDMO (contract development and
manufacturing) partners; work is underway at both partner sites;
• Validating our ability to economically produce pharma-grade MQ-7
Board and advisors
In January of this year three new members joined the Kaydence Board of Directors. These new members add extensive pharmaceutical experience across topics such as clinical development, funding, IPOs, regulatory strategy and partnering.
In the position of Board Chairman, Tom Pike takes over for Frank Bjordal, who successfully led the Kaydence board during the initial, critical 12-month period.
Tom brings more than 30 years of experience from pharmaceutical and health industries, having held leadership roles across drug development, financing, partnering & business development, IPOs, sales & marketing. Tom has also served as chairman of the Norwegian Pharmaceutical Industry Association (LMI). The last ten years he has operated as board executive and consultant for a range of life science companies. He is a member of Health&Care21 and is frequently used as an independent expert evaluator at the Norwegian Research Council. His current other board positions include, ACD Pharmaceuticals AS, Clanotech AB, Photocure ASA, Vaccibody AS, Vectron Biosolutions AS and Vingmed AS.
Geir Christian Melen also joined the Kaydence board of directors. Geir Christian currently serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Zelluna Immunotherapy. He has extensive management experience from the biotech industry including serving as the CEO of Ostomycure and Clavis Pharma, as well as the CFO of Algeta and Photocure. Over his professional career, he has gained extensive experience in financing, strategy and corporate development, including successful company IPOs.
Dilip Mehta, Ph.D, is our third new board member. Dilip currently serves as CEO & Chairman of Viridis BioPharma Pvt. Ltd, and also as CEO of Synergia Life Sciences Pvt. Ltd., both located in Mumbai, India. Dilip holds a Ph.D in chemical engineering, and has decades of experience in research, manufacturing and marketing of specialized active ingredients for the pharmaceutical, nutraceutical, food and cosmetic industries. He is also currently an Adjunct Professor at the School of Medicine, Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center.
Tom, Geir Christian and Dilip join Frode Bohan, Erik Flatmark and Else Høibraaten, MD, Ph.D., all three of whom have been serving on the Kaydence board since January 2018.
Kaydence Pharma AS
Norway: Lilleakerveien 2B, N-0283 Oslo
USA: 317 George St., Suite 320, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
[email protected] www.kaydencepharma.com
In parallel with building a board of directors with extensive pharmaceutical experience, we have also formed a world-class clinical study design and investigative team. The team is truly international, starting with two leading experts in the renal space based in Oslo.
Anders Åsberg, Ph.D., and Dr. Anders Hartmann, both with the Oslo University Hospital / Rikshospitalet, have deep expertise that are highly relevant to our therapeutic focus. We are excited about the opportunity to work with Anders and Anders and expect to initiate several studies with the Oslo University Hospital in the coming months.
Leon Schurgers, Ph.D., professor of biochemistry at Maastricht University, is one of the world’s leading experts in vascular calcification, menaquinones and K-dependent proteins.
And in the US, Dr. Julio Chirinos (cardiologist) and Dr. Raymond Townsend (nephrologist), both with the University of Pennsylvania Hospital / Perelman School of Medicine, have published multiple studies on calcification and Matrix Gla Protein, and bring critical clinical expertise to the team.
Intellectual property
We continue to place a high priority strengthening our intellectual property and patent portfolio. Since the beginning of 2019 we have filed three new provisional patents. In parallel, we continue to support studies that we expect will be the basis for additional patents in the coming 12 months. And earlier this month we learned that we have gained a patent in Norway for combinations of MQ-7 and omega-3s.
Funding
In the 4th quarter of last year we reached our short-term funding target of approximately NOK 20 million, of which about NOK 10 million was cash and 10 million was NattoPharma debt conversion to equity. As progress on our integrated development plan advances, our funding needs will also ramp up. In the near-term, these needs are driven by the remaining studies required for submission of the IND application and initiation of the Phase 1b clinical trial. To meet the funding requirements of the continuing program the company is preparing for a new share issue in the coming 8 months.
In support of the funding needs and to engage in early-stage partnering activities, we will be participating in several important pharmaceutical industry events:
• In April we applied for and were selected to present our company at BioNJ’s Ninth Annual BioPartnering Conference Co-sponsored by J.P. Morgan and Johnson & Johnson.
• In the following month, we will be participating in the global BioInnovation conference. This is a major event with over 2000 pharmaceutical industry companies and service providers expected to attend.
In closing, we are pleased with our progress over the last fifteen months. We are encouraged by what appears to be an increasing level of interest in the role of MQ-7, particularly among academic and research institutions, and are confident that we have established the leading position on the path to pharmaceutical development. In the months ahead we will look to provide quarterly updates to you to keep you apprised of our progress.
Kaydence Pharma AS
Norway: Lilleakerveien 2B, N-0283 Oslo
USA: 317 George St., Suite 320, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
[email protected] www.kaydencepharma.com
For this communication, we will be sending both hard copy and email; however, in the future we would like to handle these communications exclusively via email. If you did not also receive an email version of this letter, we ask that you send us your email address, to [email protected] , so that we can be sure to reach you with our digital communications.
Sincerely,
Dan
Dan Rosenbaum CEO
Kaydence Pharma AS
Norway: Lilleakerveien 2B, N-0283 Oslo
USA: 317 George St., Suite 320, New Brunswick, NJ 08901
[email protected] www.kaydencepharma.com
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Får satse på at Nordea ikke står bak prospektet 