Underpromise & overdeliver. Noe jeg setter pris på, og faktisk ser etter i selskaper. Bra hvis de har lært.
???
De guidet før pandemien. Ingen kunne drømme om 2 år med pandemi på det tidspunktet.
Du misforstår. Før sist kvartalspresentasjon forventet DNB bedre utvikling enn hva Photocure leverte. Jeg har forstått, og forventer, at analytikerne prater med selskapene før de publiserer guiding mot kvartalspresentasjoner, og at forventningene de setter styres en del av selskapet i den samtalen, selvfølgelig uten å si noe konkret.
Hva analytikerne sier står for deres regning og kan ikke direkte relateres til selskapets guiding.
Norne forventet f.eks. ikke noe mer enn det som ble levert:
" Photocure delivered 3Q figures that were largely in line with our estimates."
Selskapet kan nok få til å styre estimatene litt dersom de vil, og det er det jeg gjetter på at de har gjort nå =)
Postet av sokaratest på HO:
Post COVID boost in ‘22 and strong LT growth prospects keep us positive
We keep our positive stance on PHO ahead of the 4Q report on February 23rd. Pandemic-related uncertainty is still there, but the Omicron variant seems to put less strain on the healthcare systems and restrictions are being lifted globally. This should directly benefit Photocure during 2022. Thus, our Buy recommendation and NOK 150/sh TP stays unchanged.
Unimpressive 4Q likely
Photocure will release its 4Q21 report on February 23rd. Our estimates stand at NOK 90.2m for revenues, which is a bit up QoQ, but down YoY. 4Q20 was a solid temporary comeback quarter for Photocure and there was a reversal of accrual that had a positive impact on revenues of NOK 8m. 4Q21 faced Omicron fear, thus likely having a negative impact on Photocure’s sales efforts. The company is preparing for post-pandemic growth and costs are still rising. Therefore, we still see negative EBITDA of NOK 5.5m for the closed quarter.
Long-term investment case intact
We continue to view the PHO investment case standing on three growth legs:
I. Short-term growth should come from the US with post-pandemic reopening; growth should come back likely after 1Q22, as we see the world gradually removing COVID-related restrictions. Blue Light Cystoscope installations should also pick up significantly now that Karl Storz received FDA approval for the modernized equipment. The wait for new modern equipment might have hampered near term BCL installation expectations.
II. In the medium-term, European organisation should deliver strong growth as proper sales efforts are being made in the existing Ipsen territories but also in the new large-potential European territories, where Hexvix was basically non-existent. Post-pandemic reopening should be a big boost here as well.
III. In the long-term, Photocure’s partner Asieris should launch Hexvix in China, which should further improve long-term growth prospects. Notably, Asieris has obtained the Phase III clinical trial application approval from the National Medical Products Administration of China for Hexvix. Long-term growth prospects are further strengthened by the potential approval of Cevira, which was also out-licensed to Asieris.
Buy maintained at the same TP of NOK 150/sh
We keep our Buy recommendation and NOK 150/sh TP ahead of the 4Q report on Wednesday. We strongly believe Photocure is going to be a big beneficiary from the post pandemic reopening, as access to hospitals improves and sales process is eased. Having also in mind the three-pillar growth story, we see plenty of share price appreciation triggers over the next quarters and years.
Analyst
Tomas Skeivys, CFA
+370 676 35 144
tomas.skeivys@norne.no
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Ved første gjennomlesning virker dette som en langt sterkere kvartalsrapport enn forrige
Det minst positive jeg kan se med denne er at OPEX har økt ganske mye i, men dette er ikke rett tid å spare seg til fant når man ser hvor stor kontantbeholdning de har
Trenden på US revenue er riktig så fin.
Og bak det hele ligger Cevira som en kjempebombe
Hva er veien frem til disse milestone payments på 16,5 millioner USD, for ikke å si de 36 millioner USD?
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Enig!
Og revenues på 94, 2 mill er vel litt mer enn forventet av diverse analytikere om jeg ikke huske feil?!
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Skyter fra hofta nå, men var det ikke 90,1 som var forventet og så blir det 94,2.
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Ja, omtrent som forventet og litt på oppsiden vel på resultatet.
Men mye positivt inne i den rapporten og vil fremheve dette:
- Unit sales in the U.S. and Europe rose 11% and 12% (mtp på omicrontrykket i Q4, slår dette mine forventninger)
- Procedure volumes for bladder cancer resection surgeries in the U.S. declined 11%, while we grew Cysview unit volume by 24% from 2019 to 2021 (borger veldig bra for post-covid)
- Our backlog for new capital equipment continues to grow, and we are extremely pleased that Karl Storz’s new blue light system was approved by the FDA earlier this month. As a result, both Photocure and Karl Storz are energized and preparing to launch this new system in the coming months, (borger veldig bra for fremtidig vekst - spesielt bra at KS nå blir med og “pusher” scopes)
- Og Ikke glem Cevira, sier jeg bare → der er det store potensielle verdier og i 2022/23 vil man forhåpentligvis få noen gode avklaringer der.
Gleder meg rett og slett til fortsettelsen her nå!
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Det stemmer.
Norne forventet 90 og DNB 91 mill. 94 er naturligvis ikke en voldsom økning, men jeg tar med meg alt som er positivt 
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Et kvartal helt på det jevne. Fortsatt motvind fra covid, men syns man begynner å se positive tendenser med økning i solgte units i USA og Europa. 2022 blir et nøkkelår for selskapet.
Skulle gjerne hatt mer informasjon om hvordan det går i EU5 ex Tyskland, men det kommer vel mer info om dette i årsrapporten. Salget i europa har i hovedsak vært i Norden og Tyskland, så hvis man kan beholde sin markedsandeler der, og samtidig øke i resten av EU5 kan salgene i europa bli riktig fine. Hvis man estimerer at det gjøres ca. 270k TURBT i EU5 ex. Tyskland så utgjør det et marked på ca. 1,1 mrd NOK.
I USA har jeg prøvd å tracke gjennomsnittlig bruk av skop og vekst i totalt antall skop sett opp mot inntektene til photocure. I all hovedsak har inntektveksten deres vært pga. økning i antall skop, mens gjennomsnittlig bruk av utplasserte skop har vært nokså jevn. Under pandemien har veksten i antall skop falt, samtidig som gjennomsnittlig bruk av utplasserte skop har falt. Likevel er det nesten 100 flere skops utplassert i usa nå sammenlignet med da pandemien startet. Hvis vekst i skop og gjennomsnittlig bruk av utplassert skop kommer tilbake til prepandemi nivåer så kan det bli riktig fint på sikt med den økte basen av skop. Forhåpentligvis kan laseringen av den nye BLC-modellen hjelpe på videre vekst og bruk av skop i USA.
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Fra Norne etter q4:
In-line 4Q and strong growth prospects keeps us positive Photocure’s 4Q report did not bring major surprises, while strong post pandemic growth expectations stay. Therefore, we are not likely to change our estimates and TP much and keep our positive stance, seeing Photocure as a big winner from the post-pandemic reopening. Largely in-line 4Q figures Photocure released their 4Q21 report this morning with figures being largely in line with expectations. Sales of NOK 95m were slightly better than our NOK 90m estimate. EBITDA came in spot on our projections at NOK -5.5m, while the bottom line was affected negatively by remeasurement of deferred consideration to Ipsen (NOK 17m). This means higher sales in Europe are expected (larger earnout for Ipsen), which is fundamentally positive for Photocure. Adj. for this, bottom line was slightly better than expected.
Good momentum in new BCL installations despite the wait for upgrade 9 new Blue Light Cystoscope installations were made in the US in the quarter, which is better than 6 in our model and down from 14 the previous quarter. The company says the pace was negatively affected by the wait for the new upgraded equipment from Karl Storz. New Blue Light Cystoscope from Karl Storz is expected to be launched in 1H22 after approval from the FDA recently, thus likely improving new BCL installation numbers afterwards. Growth held back by COVID, but improvement from 2Q As expected, the business continued to be affected by the pandemic. However, normalization of access to hospitals is expected from 2Q onwards as the pandemic ebbs. Also as anticipated, 1Q growth will still be affected negatively. The company continues to position itself for a strong post-pandemic growth in the US and Europe with large untapped market potential, while new markets are also constantly added to the mix. Buy stays after in-line 4Q and expected strong post pandemic growth All in all, the report did not bring major surprises with in-line figures and continued expectations for a strong pickup in post-pandemic sales (improvements from 2Q). Therefore, we are not likely to change our estimates much and we keep our positive stance on the share anticipating the company to be a big winner from post-pandemic reopening
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BUY, PHO.OL: SP, NOK 92.15; TP NOK 150.00
Better sales but EBITDA in line
10% organic growth driven by both EU and US
Cons ‘22e sales up 5%
Positive share price reaction warranted
ABG
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Grei anledning for å selge seg ut i dag. Hvis det blir nyhets tørke i denne vet jeg at den kommer til å sige igjen etter noen dager/uker…
Ja, det er nok best for deg å selge kreinh! Du har jo truffet så bra på tradene dine i blant annet Contextvision, så dine råd bør man naturligvis ikke kimse av.
Jeg kjøpte nå Photocure på 87…
Blir veldig fort offtopic hvis alle skal sitte og melde hver trade de gjør, da bør man heller lage seg en porteføljetråd:
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Dette innlegget ble rapportert og er midlertidig skjult.
Litt i tvil her nå om det er 1 ny eller 3 nye klinikker, det er avvik på adressene.
West Jefferson Medical Center
1101 Medical Center Blvd., Marrero, LA 70072
West Jefferson Medical Center
1111 Medical Center Blvd. Suite N-703, Marrero, LA 70072
West Jefferson Medical Center
1111 Medical Center Blvd., Suite N-311, Marrero, LA 70072
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