Oppdatering fra Norne idag 28.2.
Significant growth to start coming back soon Photocure’s 4Q report did not bring major surprises, while strong post pandemic growth expectations stay. Therefore, we keep our Buy recommendation at a bit lower TP of NOK 140/sh (150). Largely in-line 4Q figures Photocure released their 4Q21 report last week with figures being largely in line with expectations. Sales of NOK 95m were slightly better than our NOK 90m estimate. EBITDA came in spot on our projections at NOK -5.5m, while the bottom line was affected negatively by remeasurement of deferred consideration to Ipsen (NOK 17m). This means higher sales in Europe are expected (larger earnout for Ipsen), which is fundamentally positive for Photocure. Adj. for this, bottom line was not far from expectations – adj. EPS at NOK -0.53 vs NOK -0.49 in our model.
Good momentum in new BCL installations despite the wait for upgrade 9 new Blue Light Cystoscope installations were made in the US in the quarter, which is better than 6 in our model and down from 14 the previous quarter. The company says the pace was negatively affected by the wait for the new upgraded equipment from Karl Storz and that situation is likely to continue in the near term. New Blue Light Cystoscope from Karl Storz is expected to be launched in 1H22 after approval from the FDA recently, thus likely improving new BCL installation numbers from 2H22. Growth held back by COVID, but improvement from 2Q As expected, the business continued to be affected by the pandemic. However, normalization of access to hospitals is expected from 2Q onwards as the pandemic ebbs. Also as anticipated, 1Q growth will still be affected negatively. The company continues to position itself for a strong post-pandemic growth in the US and Europe with large untapped market potential, while new markets are also constantly added to the mix. Buy stays after in-line 4Q and expected strong post pandemic growth All in all, the report did not bring major surprises with in-line figures and continued expectations for a strong pickup in post-pandemic sales (improvements from 2Q). Therefore, we keep our Buy recommendation at a bit lower TP of NOK 140/sh (150) after a comprehensive review of our estimates. We continue seeing Photocure as a big winner of the post pandemic reopening that will be seen in results and medium-to long-term growth story is appealing.