Last October, the UK Armed Forces Minister James Heappey described Russia’s Black Sea Fleet as ‘functionally defeated’
Russia has long since lost any surveillance and targeting capability in the western Black Sea,
the ferries have now been hit by ATACMS and are out of use.
In other words there are only two arteries keeping Crimea alive: the new railway and a reduced Kerch bridge, both of which are within ATACMS range
It [jernbanelinjen gjennom zaporizhzhia] could be repaired quite quickly – it is hard to cripple a railway laid over flat country for a long time – but that supply route is clearly no longer to be relied upon.
Some have even started to consider if this might be the moment for an amphibious landing of some sort by Ukraine. The Ukrainians have already made determined efforts to get across the Dnipro river, but the classic use of amphibious assault is to outflank the enemy. A landing in Crimea would avoid the need to attack into prepared defences as on the existing front line.
Westerners would see this as inconceivable because the Ukrainians, properly speaking, lack the maritime resources for amphibious assault. It’s also a sad fact that despite the respect we have just paid to the veterans of D-Day, we in the West have grown deeply allergic to the risk involved in this kind of beach storming activity.
The British analysts consider that Russia has now largely run out of convicts to throw into the meat grinder, and that Putin is wary of rounding up even more Russians – as much because it would damage his economy and force more Russian men to flee overseas, as because he is concerned about domestic opposition.
There are plenty who believe Russia somehow has unlimited resources to call on as this war grinds on, but that doesn’t sound like it to me. With many troops recently drawn off to the north for the failed assault on Kharkiv, it just could be that the battered Russian forces in Crimea are ripe to be overrun.
Irrespective of what I think, for President Zelensky the question remains: when Crimea is choked off and isolated – as it surely will soon be – how does Ukraine press home that advantage?
Maybe Crimea doesn’t need Ukrainian ‘boots on the ground’ at all. Choke the arteries, increase the squeeze and wait for the missiles, ammo and basic supplies to dry up. Then watch the bills mount as Putin is forced to burn resources to hold on to the peninsula, achieving nothing but avoiding a propaganda loss. Add in the embarrassment factor and Crimea becomes not just a greatly reduced operational base but a negotiating point with strategic utility across the whole conflict.
Interessant artikkel. Jeg tenker at hvis Ukraina skal klare å skvise Russland ut av Krim, Kherson og Zaporizhzhia, så må de ha tatt ut såpass med luftvern at de kan bruke glidebomber mot jernbanen gjennom Zaporizhzhia. Det er relativt billig og noe som kan gjøres daglig. Det hjelper ikke at jernbanelinjer kan repareres på en dag hvis angrepene kommer daglig. Jeg tenker også at Ukraina burde kunne treffe med glidebombene når togene kjører. Jeg tenker også at Ukraina må ha tatt ut Kerch-broen. Nå har Russland begynt å kjøre tog med drivstoff over broen. Å treffe et slikt tog med droner er kanskje ikke umulig? Brann på en jernbanebro hovedsakelig av stål svekker stålet så det ikke tåler særlig til last. Det er grunnen til at togene har vært fraværende over broen en lang stund nå, men nå er tilbake, men i svært lav hastighet.
Btw, forfatteren er:
Tom Sharpe is a former Royal Navy officer. He is a graduate of the Advanced Command and Staff Course run by the UK’s Joint Services Command and Staff College
Ett problem med artikler som dette er at de legger til grunn en hel del optimistiske antagelser. Ben Hodges som jeg vil påstå er mer enn kompetent har jo bommet stort i sine anslag. Problemet hans var at han antok USA ville forsyne Ukraina med ATACMS og F-16 og at Russland ikke nødvendigvis ville kjøre en stor mobilisering. (Men nå har Ukraina ATACMS og får F-16, så…)
Jeg tenker at hvis Putin ser at han er i ferd med å tape krigen pga for få folk, ja, da gir han faen i interne problemer og mobiliserer flere folk. Det kan jo forsåvidt få krigen til å ta slutt på andre vis… Det er en strikk som nok kan strekkes veldig langt. Jeg tror dog at ingen vet punktet hvor det blir opprør (igjen).
Jeg er også interessert i det jeg har sett skrevet om at luftvern trekkes fra Krim. Jeg synes det høres usannsynlig ut. Krim uten luftvern vil jeg påstå ikke går an å holde. Logistikken blir da umulig.
