En meget god artikkel om Ruzzlands økonomiske framtidsutsikter. Kort oppsummert: De ser elendige ut! Budsjettunderskuddene øker, og er mer enn 3 trillioner rubler for 2024. 2025 budsjettet er basert på oljepris på 69dollar fatet . The wealth fund er nå nede på ca 5,5 tr. rubler, men vil minske betydelig før vi ser 2025 da mye underskudd skal dekkes inn. Limer inn et utdrag, artikkelen bør leses i sin helhet:
A: My forecast is quite grim. There are no sources of good news for the Russian economy on the horizon, only bad news. It was hoped by Putin that some time by now, end-2024 or early 2025, Russia will find a new economic model to substitute former dependence on the West, and will move forward apart from just depleting the remaining scarce reserves. But the new model wasn’t found. Import substitution is not working: Russia is significantly cut from international technology, and its own corporations are lazy corrupt monopolies, also inheriting a lot of Soviet manufacturing culture, which fundamentally has no idea what competitiveness or client orientation is. We can’t manufacture competitive products in such a hostile environment, unfriendly to private initiative and innovation. Russian domestic market is too small to ensure commercial viability of new products - be it smartphones, cars, airplanes, etc. - but China and other countries of the Global South refuse to open their markets to us. As a result of decoupling from the West, Russian non-commodity and non-energy exports are now about a quarter lower than they were in 2021 - and new markets of the Global South are not opening for our products (imagine we could even produce a competitive one). Putin hoped that China would bail him out financially and share technology with us, but it doesn’t want to. The only lifeline is the remaining government’s cash reserves, but they are running thin quite fast.
You mentioned stagflation earlier, but I think that may even turn out to be not the worst possible scenario - Russia may face recession instead. Stagflation means low or zero growth, a stagnation of the economy combined with high inflation. But Russia in the current situation faces probably a more rapid output contraction prospects than anticipated - given the fact that most enterprises have low or zero profitability, and are not ready to withstand high interest rates for a protracted period. But war-driven inflation is not reacting to Central Bank’s interest rate hikes - which means that the Central Bank may raise the interest rate significantly at its next meeting on December 20th, to 23%, 25%, or even beyond. Everyone’s looking now at this Central Bank’s December meeting as some sort of end-of-the-world date, like, remember, people did with regard to some Maya calendar doomsday date a few years ago.
Whatever happens on December 20th, its clear that the Russian economy is marooned. It was expected in 2022 that, some time by now, Russia will firmly stand on its feet, developing successful import substitution, a single market with China, etc. None of this is happening. We’re still reliant on everything imported, workforce was heavily depleted by war, all this fuels inflation, attempts to calm it down through high interest rates only cool down the economy. Everything depends on the state money, but these are running scarce. A dead end.
Putin may continue the present course for some time, but 2025 will be some kind of moment of truth for him. He won’t be able to afford another high-deficit budget. He has to decide what to do with inflation/economic cooling scissors, whether he would go full monetarist and watch his industries die under pressure of high rates, or he lets it loose like Erdogan did. The clock is ticking regarding the workforce and military personnel shortage crisis, either. We’re not there yet - but at some point soon, Putin will have to seriously reconsider continuation of the war. Bad state of the Russian economy doesn’t provide many possibilities for continuing.
