450 days of drone and missile strikes with no strategic effect.
Will the donation of Tomahawk or Taurus cruise missiles have an impact on the war? Absolutely.
According to ISW, there are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within 2,500 km of Ukraine (1,655 within range of 1,600 km). Ukraine can significantly degrade Russia’s military potential by targeting its defence industrial base, command and control network, military bases, concentration of forces in the deep rear, depots, and logistical hubs. Long-range strikes will allow Ukraine to destroy Russia’s gas and oil infrastructure even faster, undermining its ability to finance the war.
Long-range missiles and drones will, however, not break Russia’s will to fight.
Ukraine’s resolve and resilience remain unchanged after having been exposed to a Russian “Blitz” for 1,327 days.
Both Ukraine and Russia are fighting an existential war. Ukraine is fighting for its right to exist as an independent and sovereign nation. Russia, in contrast, is waging war to achieve its aspirations as a Great Power and strategic parity with the US and China. Having “shown its cards”, Russia must either win or accept becoming a pariah state at the mercy of China.
Ukraine is suffering the devastating consequences of Russia’s strike campaign. During the last 450 days, of which only 17 have been without long-range missile and drone strikes , Russia has launched a staggering 49,643 drones against Ukrainian cities, energy infrastructure, health facilities, schools, kindergartens and industry. While Ukraine has successfully shot down or suppressed 42,740 (86,1%), 6,903 drones have possibly struck their intended targets.
While the long-range strike campaign is horrendous in its scale and scope, it remains unable to deliver the strategic effects Russia desires.
Quite the opposite. It helps mobilise the Ukrainian society and its industrial base. Equally importantly, it helps unify and consolidate Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand’s support for Ukraine.
The latter is increasingly becoming closer aligned with Ukraine.
According to the Ministry of Defence, 25 foreign defence companies are localising in Ukraine. Production lines are being established abroad. Many countries, including Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, Turkey and the UK, have recently signed formal documents (SOI, MoU, project agreements), announced clear state-level joint production initiatives, or already started joint projects.
The strategic defeat of Russia, however, is impossible through sanctions and diplomatic efforts alone. It requires a military effort beyond industrial cooperation and the donation of weapons and ammunition.
It requires a military commitment that fundamentally changes the military balance on the battlefield. It remains the only off-ramp that will allow the Kremlin to withdraw without triggering regime change.
