Godt poeng @hummels . Midtøsten er som en kokende gryte. Det er greit så lenge det koker, men ikke når det koker over - da koker det raskt over andre steder (parafrase Steven Coll, 2005) Saudi har allerede vært på banen for å roe gemyttene. Tenker vi trenger noe action i en av opec landene før oljen tar av. Dette i Israel vil nok bevege oljen - geopolitisk uro krydrer oljen.
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Såpass store konflikter i heksegryter som midtøsten skaper bevegelser i oljemarkedet. Hamas er ikke proffe nok til å utføre noe sånt alene, så det snakkes om at Iran har hjulpet dem. Dette kan føre til sanksjoner mot Irans olje som vil definitivt skape bølger i oljemarkedet.
Her fra Bloomberg:
For Oil, It’s Not 1973 Again – But It Could Still Turn Ugly
Crude prices are likely to rise after the surprise Hamas attack on Israel, but there’s still plenty of capacity to tap.
istory doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. On the eve of the 50th anniversary of the world’s first oil crisis, the parallels between October 2023 and October 1973 are easy to draw: A surprise attack on Israel and oil prices rising. But the resemblance ends there.
The global economy isn’t about to suffer another Arab oil embargo that would triple the price of a barrel of crude. Yet, it would be a mistake to downplay the chances that the world faces higher-for-longer oil prices.
Half-Century of Oil Crisis
The cost of Arab Light crude, adjusted by inflation, is far from its peak
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The oil market itself doesn’t have any of the pre-October 1973 characteristics. Back then, oil demand was surging, and the world had exhausted all its spare production capacity. Today, consumption growth has moderated, and is likely to slow further as electric vehicles become a reality. In addition, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have significant spare capacity that they use to curb prices – if they choose to do so.
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As importantly, today, OPEC nations aren’t trying to boost prices beyond a few extra dollars. Riyadh would be content with oil prices rising another 10-20% higher, to just above $100 a barrel from $85 currently, rather than pushing them more than 100% higher to $200 a barrel. Just before the October 1973 oil embargo, OPEC nations unilaterally hiked the official petroleum prices by about 70%. Although the embargo is the element most vividly remembered of the crisis, the price hike was as crucial.
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The fallout could yet have an impact on oil markets in 2023 and 2024. The most immediate impact could come if Israel concludes that Hamas acted on instructions of Tehran. In that scenario, oil prices could go much higher. In 2019, Iran demonstrated, via Yemeni proxies, that it’s able to knock down a significant chunk of Saudi oil production capacity. It could do the same as retaliation if it finds itself under Israel or American attack.
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Even if Israel doesn’t immediately respond to Iran, the repercussions will likely affect Iranian oil production. Since late 2022, Washington has turned a blind eye to surging Iranian oil exports, bypassing American sanctions. The priority in Washington was an informal détente with Tehran. As a result, Iranian oil output has surged nearly 700,000 barrels a day this year – the second-largest source of incremental supply in 2023, behind only US shale. The White House is now likely to enforce the sanctions. That could be enough to push oil prices to $100 a barrel, and potentially beyond.
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Russia will benefit from any Middle East oil crisis. If Washington enforces sanctions against Iran, it could create space for Russia’s own sanctioned barrels to both win market share and achieve higher prices. One of the reasons why the White House turned a blind eye on Iranian oil exports is because it hurt Russia. In turn, Venezuela could also benefit, with the White House relaxing sanctions to ease market pressure.
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The Saudi-Israeli diplomatic deal, which many had penciled in for early-to-mid 2024, is a casualty. Even if Riyadh is likely furious with Hamas, it’s difficult to see how Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would be able to sell the deal domestically. That, in turn, removes the potential for Saudi Arabia pumping more oil to help passage of the deal in Washington. The other victim of the Hamas-Isaeli war is the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, which itself was another bearish element for oil.
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Finally, a key difference from 1973, Washington can tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to limit the impact on gasoline prices — and on President Joe Biden’s approval rating. If oil prices surge because of tension in the Middle East, the White House is sure to tap the SPR. Although it’s at its lowest level in 40 years, the reserve still has enough oil to deal with another crisis.
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Ser man bort i fra midtøsten synes jeg denne var interessant fra Blooomberg (en annen artikkel)
I’d like to be proved wrong, but currently there’s no chance that the world will reduce oil consumption by 2030 nearly as much as needed to meet its net-zero emissions targets. And that’s why many Western governments, while preaching green in public, in private tell oil executives to keep investing in more production.
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En annen vinkling short term, men bullish for olje long term
Many people asked me if the Hamas attacks on Israel will have an impact on oil prices. As the Levant is not a large oil producing region, it is unlikely to impact oil supply in the short term. And therefore one should not expect a large oil price spike in the coming days. But it could eventually have an impact on supply and prices. Global oil inventories are low, and the Saudi and Russian production cuts will lead to more inventories draws over the next few months. The market will eventually have to beg for more Saudi supply, which I believe, will not happen sub $110 Brent. Now, over the last 6 months we have seen a very large increase in Iranian supply due to weak enforcement of sanctions. As Iran is also behind Hamas’ attacks on Israel, there is a good probability that the US administration will start enforcing those sanctions on Iranian oil exports more tightly. That would further tighten the oil market. Also the probability that this will lead to direct conflict with Iran is not zero.
https://twitter.com/AndurandPierre/status/1710725270636818536
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Liker veldig godt den siste der
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Må vel være blant sterkeste kvartal man har sett?
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I kombinasjon med oljen kan det kanskje trekke litt opp herfra.
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Ja det er hevet under enhver tvil. PGS sin tur imorgen, sterke tall der også så vil man få opp øyne for at fusjonerte selskapet faktisk er underpriset til den antatte markedsverdi på ca 28 milliarder.
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Sjokkerende sterke tall, tgs er nok over 200 relativt kjapt
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Sjokkerende for noen😃
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Spennende å se om noen av meglerhusene slenger seg på. Pareto kan vel ikke kommer med kursmål.
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Tall langt over/under konsensus vil alltid generere nye kursmål
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Utdrag fra Pareto
Strong Q3 driven by OBN and high pre-funding
TGS reports strong Q3 revenues (…) in-line with expectations. Early salesrate is (…)robust”, and we understand that high YTD investment activity means TGS will revise up its FY 2023 guidance. We thus expect to increase corresponding early sales estimates in Q4. Overall, a positive update from TGS with expectations likely to have come down lately with poor share-price performed since the merger update.
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Bedre enn jeg forventet. Nå kan det smelle like bra med PGS sine tall i morgen. Flere triggere i vente!
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Sent ute der Tekbot…
Stor takk til PGS!
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God omsetting i det minste;)