Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Bitcoin

Kryptovaluta
#6059

CREATING A STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE AND DIGITAL ASSET STOCKPILE: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, positioning the United States as a leader among nations in government digital asset strategy.

  • The Order creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that will treat bitcoin as a reserve asset.
    • The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve will be capitalized with bitcoin owned by the Department of Treasury that was forfeited as part of criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings. Other agencies will evaluate their legal authority to transfer any bitcoin owned by those agencies to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
    • The United States will not sell bitcoin deposited into this Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, which will be maintained as a store of reserve assets.
    • The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorized to develop budget-neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies impose no incremental costs on American taxpayers.
  • It also established a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of digital assets other than bitcoin owned by the Department of Treasury that was forfeited in criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings.
    • The government will not acquire additional assets for the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.
    • The Secretary of the Treasury may determine strategies for responsible stewardship, including potential sales from the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile.
  • Agencies must provide a full accounting of their digital asset holdings to the Secretary of the Treasury and the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.
  • This Order ensures a strategic approach to managing digital assets under U.S. control.

ADDRESSING A CRYPTO MANAGEMENT GAP:

  • Bitcoin, the original cryptocurrency, is referred to as “digital gold” because of its scarcity and security, having never been hacked.
    • With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
    • The United States currently holds a significant amount of bitcoin but has not maximized its strategic position as a unique store of value in the global financial system.
    • Premature sales of bitcoin have already cost U.S. taxpayers over $17 billion.
  • The Executive Order begins to resolve the current disjointed handling of cryptocurrencies seized through forfeiture by, and scattered across, various Federal agencies.
  • Currently, no clear policy exists for managing these assets, leading to a lack of accountability and inadequate exploration of options to centralize, secure, or maximize their value.
  • Taking affirmative steps to centralize ownership, control, and management of these assets within the Federal government will ensure proper oversight, accurate tracking, and a cohesive approach to managing the government’s cryptocurrency holdings.
  • This move harnesses the power of digital assets for national prosperity, rather than letting them languish in limbo.

DELIVERING ON PLEDGE TO MAKE AMERICA THE CRYPTO CAPITAL OF THE WORLD: President Trump is fulfilling his promise to position America as the global leader in cryptocurrency.

  • President Trump promised to make the United States the “crypto capital of the world,” emphasizing the need to embrace digital assets to drive economic growth and technological leadership.

  • In his first week in office, President Trump signed an Executive Order to promote United States leadership in digital assets such as cryptocurrency.

  • President Trump has consistently advocated for a forward-thinking approach to crypto, stating: “I am very positive and open minded to cryptocurrency companies, and all things related to this new and burgeoning industry. Our country must be the leader in the field.”

  • President Trump promised to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Assets Stockpile.

  • President Trump appointed a “crypto czar” and is hosting the first-ever crypto summit at the White House, just a few of the many ways this Administration is demonstrating its strong commitment to this digital asset.

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1 Like
#6060

@Morti Hva er dine tanker rundt dette?

#6061

Sykt bra syns jeg. Problemet for markedet er at det kom lite nytt og det meste lå i kortene allerede fra ganske nylig av. Skulle dette bli en skikkelig trigger så måtte det være noe nytt i det. Men det er tradere som vil ha sånn.

Hadde noen sagt dette for 3 år siden så hadde ingen trodd deg. Så dette er helt klart bull.

USA kan bruke Microstrategy metoden for å kjøpe bitcoin. En annen plausibel metode er å be om donasjoner fra private. Det vi vet nå er at staten ikke skal belaste statsbudsjettet med sine kjøp.

Saylors hint om 1 million Bitcoin å kjøpe, ble ikke nevnt i går.

1 Like
#6062

Liten tvil om at dette er bullish på langsikt. Folk vil nok også miste sin tro på Dollaren etterhvert tenker jeg.

Da ser man plutselig utleiere av leiligheter og boliger forlanger leie betalt i Bitcoin osv…

#6063

Re : tha dollar dollar bill.

Frykter du at Bricks+ er hva som får $ til å havarere?

Når den alliansen vokser seg stor, er det vel ingen grunn til at de skal trade oil & minerals i dollarz?

#6064

Høres forlokkende ut nå i et bullmarket.
Men muligens litt for risky when shit goes Bear?

Snart gått 12 år, hvor man har meldt og sett for seg krypto sin eksistens i hverdagen.

Men en så lenge forblir det kun spekulativ shit!

#6065

Kan sikkert være flere ting. Den amerikanske statsgjelda er jo så astronomisk nå at dersom Kina og andre begynner å kvitte seg med statobligasjonene så kan man vel fort være inne i en negativ spiral bare av den grunn?

1 Like
#6066

Har selv skrevet opp til flere ganger her inne at jeg ser ikke føre meg at vi står å betaler med Bitcoin i butikken med det første. Det vil bli alt for lite effektivt og ikke minste dyrt.

Men skulle hele verden plutselig miste sin tro på Dollar så ser jeg ikke bort i fra utleiere der over vil kreve det. Funker fint på en betaling som går 1 gang pr måned med litt støre beløp en å kjøpe 1 stk melk på en butikk.

1 Like
#6067

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opp mot 5 millioner Bitcoin det…

4 Likes
#6068

Saylor var vel litt skuffet når han fikk vite at de ikke har sagt at de skulle ut i markedet og handle, men igjen et poeng som jeg hørte på “Wolf of All Streets” sin siste podcast hvorfor skulle de gjøre det da tar markedet helt av før de får handlet.

På samme podcast nevnte de at beskjeden fra en av de som jobbet med Crypto lobbying hos Trump var at de først måtte få «Strategic Crypto Reserve» inn som en lov før alt annet skjer eller så kan neste sittende presidenten i USA omgjøre Trump sitt mål med en ny Executive.

Nå er det kun Trumps sin regjering sitt strategi om å ikke selge Bitcoin de holder på som er vel rundt 200k bitcoin. Da USA over tid hadde tapt flere milliarder dollar på å selge til en verdi av rundt 200m dollar til sammen over årene. Det blir vel litt krabbing framover så får man håpe at de får gjennomslag for dette som en nasjonal lov og strategi, når det først skjer så vil vel det ta av og for å få det gjennom så kan de ikke handle på statens regning men de kunne f.eks. selge andre tokens de konfiskerer ved kriminalitet eller lignende for å trade til BTC i markedet (såkalt zero cost).

1 Like
#6069

Fortsatt overasket over at prisen på Bitcoin er der den er nå etter denne utviklingen. Hadde trodd den skulle snuse opp mot all time high igjen…

1 Like
#6070

Spurte Grok3 hva han syns

To determine whether you should hold your Bitcoin or sell it with the intent to buy back cheaper, let’s contextualize the Pi Cycle Indicator’s reliability with additional tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, on-chain metrics, and broader market factors like macroeconomic conditions and sentiment on X as of March 9, 2025. Here’s a breakdown:

Pi Cycle Indicator Context

The Pi Cycle Indicator (111DMA vs. 350DMA x2) has historically flagged Bitcoin market tops with notable precision—e.g., April 2013, December 2017, and April 2021—often within days of peaks followed by corrections of 52-86%. However, it missed key tops like November 2021 ($69,000 peak, 77.6% drop) and has been less consistent in recent cycles. As of now, Bitcoin trades around $95,000, and the indicator’s lines are trending upward but haven’t crossed, suggesting no immediate top signal. Its predictive power may be waning due to Bitcoin’s maturing market structure, including ETF inflows and institutional participation since 2024.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

RSI measures momentum and overbought/oversold conditions (0-100 scale). A daily RSI above 70 typically signals overbought conditions, while below 30 suggests oversold. As of early March 2025, Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI was around 35-41 (based on recent analyses), indicating neutral to slightly bearish momentum—neither overstretched nor a bargain. This contrasts with overbought readings (e.g., 76 in November 2024 at $91,000) before corrections. The current RSI doesn’t scream “sell now” but also doesn’t signal a strong buy, suggesting consolidation rather than an imminent sharp move.

MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, standardized for volatility, to assess over/undervaluation. Historically, scores above 5-7 mark tops (e.g., 2017’s peak), while below 1 signals bottoms (e.g., 2022’s $16,000 low). Recent data from Glassnode (March 3, 2025) shows Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV at 0.99, with STHs at a -1% loss as Bitcoin dipped below their cost basis of $92,700. The broader MVRV Z-score likely sits around 2-3 (based on historical trends and current price), far from the “red zone” of 5+. This suggests Bitcoin isn’t overvalued but lacks the deep undervaluation (e.g., <1) that screams “buy.” STH fragility could pressure prices downward if selling accelerates.

On-Chain Metrics

On-chain data provides insight into network behavior:

  • HODLer Net Position Change : Long-term holders (LTHs) accumulating during dips often signals confidence. Recent trends show LTHs holding steady or slightly accumulating post-2024 halving, a bullish undertone.
  • Exchange Flows : Net inflows to exchanges can indicate selling intent. Posts on X and analytics suggest inflows rose slightly in early March 2025, aligning with STH breakeven pressure, but not at panic levels seen in past crashes (e.g., May 2021).
  • Active Addresses : Steady or growing address activity reflects adoption. This metric remains robust, supporting a long-term bullish case despite short-term choppiness.

Macroeconomic Factors

Bitcoin’s price is increasingly tied to macro conditions:

  • Federal Reserve Policy : The Fed cut rates in September 2024, boosting risk assets like Bitcoin (rally from $60,000 to $91,000 by November). However, stubborn inflation (3.2% recently) and a strong U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) could delay further cuts, capping upside. Higher yields on bonds might pull capital away from crypto.
  • Institutional Adoption : BlackRock’s Canadian ETF launch in January 2025 and U.S. ETF success signal growing institutional interest, but recent outflows hint at caution. Trump’s pro-crypto stance post-election (November 2024) fueled optimism, though regulatory uncertainty lingers.

Sentiment on X

Sentiment on X as of March 2025 is mixed. Bulls highlight ETF-driven momentum and halving effects (supply cut to 3.25 BTC/block), projecting tops like $150,000 by year-end. Bears point to STH losses, RSI cooling, and macro headwinds, predicting a dip to $80,000-$85,000. The Fear and Greed Index likely hovers around 50-60 (neutral), down from 70+ in November 2024, reflecting uncertainty rather than euphoria or panic.

Should You Hold or Sell?

Here’s the synthesis:

  • Hold Case : The Pi Cycle hasn’t signaled a top, RSI is neutral, and MVRV Z-score isn’t in overvalued territory. On-chain LTH strength and macro tailwinds (e.g., potential rate cuts later in 2025) suggest upside potential to $100,000+ if momentum rebuilds. Selling now risks missing a rally, especially if institutional buying resumes.
  • Sell-to-Buy-Back Case : STH fragility and exchange inflows hint at a possible dip to $80,000-$85,000 (CME gap support or prior consolidation zones). RSI’s lack of oversold signal and macro uncertainty (e.g., Fed hesitance) support a short-term pullback. If you’re agile, selling now and rebuying lower could net 10-15% more BTC.

Recommendation

Given the data, holding makes more sense unless you’re an active trader with a high risk tolerance. The Pi Cycle’s lack of a top signal, combined with neutral RSI and MVRV Z-score, suggests no immediate crash, while on-chain and macro factors lean bullish long-term. Selling to buy back cheaper assumes a precise dip (e.g., $85,000) that may not materialize—Bitcoin could just as easily consolidate or climb to $100,000 if sentiment shifts. If you sell, set a firm re-entry point (e.g., $85,000) and monitor exchange flows and RSI for confirmation. For most, the safer play is holding through this choppy phase, as the broader 2025 outlook remains positive absent a major macro shock. Always weigh your goals and risk appetite—this isn’t financial advice, just analysis!

2 Likes
#6071

The price is now 84 296. Would that change your reccomendation?

With Bitcoin’s price at $84,296 as of March 9, 2025, let’s reassess the recommendation to hold or sell-to-buy-back-cheaper, factoring in the updated price alongside the Pi Cycle Indicator, RSI, MVRV Z-score, on-chain metrics, macroeconomic factors, and sentiment on X. The previous analysis assumed a price around $95,000, so this $10,704 drop shifts the context slightly.

Updated Analysis

Pi Cycle Indicator

The Pi Cycle Indicator (111DMA vs. 350DMA x2) still hasn’t signaled a top, as the lines are trending upward without a crossover. At $84,296, Bitcoin is further from a potential peak than at $95,000, reducing the immediate risk of a major correction per this metric. Historically, tops occur near crossover points (e.g., $65,000 in April 2021), and we’re not there yet. This leans toward holding, as the cycle may still have room to run.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

At $95,000, the 14-day RSI was 35-41 (neutral to bearish). At $84,296, it’s likely dropped further—let’s estimate 30-35 based on the price decline and recent consolidation. This edges closer to oversold territory (below 30), suggesting a potential bounce rather than a deeper crash. It’s not screaming “sell” and may even hint at a buying opportunity if it dips below 30, supporting a hold or cautious accumulation stance.

MVRV Z-Score

Previously, the MVRV Z-score was estimated at 2-3 (not overvalued) with Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV at 0.99. At $84,296, STHs are deeper underwater—likely -8% to -10% below their $92,700 cost basis (per Glassnode trends). The broader Z-score might now be closer to 1.5-2, even further from the 5-7 “sell” zone. This reinforces that Bitcoin isn’t overstretched and could be nearing undervaluation, favoring holding over selling at a loss.

On-Chain Metrics

  • HODLer Net Position Change : Long-term holders (LTHs) remain steady or accumulating, a bullish sign unchanged by the price drop. This stability at $84,296 suggests confidence in higher future prices.
  • Exchange Flows : Inflows rose slightly in early March, tied to STH selling pressure. At $84,296, this could intensify as more STHs hit breakeven or losses, potentially driving a short-term dip to $80,000-$82,000. However, it’s not at panic levels (e.g., May 2021’s mass exodus).
  • Active Addresses : Robust activity persists, supporting adoption and resilience. The lower price hasn’t shaken this metric, bolstering the hold case.

Macroeconomic Factors

The macro backdrop hasn’t shifted significantly since $95,000:

  • Fed Policy : Rate cuts are paused amid 3.2% inflation and a strong DXY, pressuring risk assets. A drop to $84,296 reflects this caution but doesn’t signal a collapse—more a correction within a bullish 2025 outlook.
  • Institutional Moves : ETF outflows noted earlier may have contributed to the decline, but BlackRock’s involvement and Trump’s pro-crypto stance (post-November 2024) keep the long-term narrative intact. A lower price could lure buyers back.

Sentiment on X

X posts around March 8-9, 2025, show mixed views at $84,000-$86,000:

  • Bulls see $84,296 as a support test, with $82,000-$84,000 as a base for a push to $92,000 (e.g., @gudtech_ai, @bitcoinbotnow).
  • Bears warn of a drop below $85,000 triggering leveraged long liquidations ($1.13B at risk), eyeing $80,000 (e.g., @AlvaApp). Sentiment leans neutral to bearish short-term but retains bullish undertones for 2025.

Revised Recommendation

At $84,296, the case to hold strengthens slightly, while the sell-to-buy-back-cheaper strategy gains some traction but remains riskier:

  • Hold Case : No Pi Cycle top signal, a neutral-to-oversold RSI, and an MVRV Z-score far from overvaluation suggest the dip is a correction, not a peak. LTH accumulation and macro tailwinds (e.g., potential 2025 liquidity) support waiting for a rebound—possibly to $90,000-$100,000. Selling now locks in a loss if the price recovers quickly.
  • Sell-to-Buy-Back Case : STH losses and exchange inflows hint at a further drop to $80,000-$82,000 (e.g., CME gap or 50-day SMA support). If successful, you could rebuy 5-10% more BTC. However, timing this is tricky—RSI isn’t oversold enough to guarantee a bottom, and a sudden macro shift (e.g., Fed rhetoric) could reverse the trend.

Final Call

Hold remains the safer bet unless you’re an active trader with a tight plan. The $84,296 price is closer to support ($82,000-$84,000) than resistance ($95,000), and indicators don’t signal a major breakdown. Selling now risks missing a bounce—say, to $90,000 in weeks—if sentiment or institutional buying kicks in. If you’re set on selling, wait for RSI to hit <30 or inflows to spike, targeting a re-entry at $80,000-$82,000. For most, holding through this dip aligns with the broader bullish 2025 cycle, assuming no abrupt macro shock (e.g., Fed hike). Your risk tolerance and timeline are key—this is just data-driven reasoning, not advice!

1 Like
#6072

Bitcoin has never seen accumulation this aggressive in its entire history🚨

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1 Like
#6073

Kjøp ser ut som en no brainer

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4 Likes
#6074

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#6075

Tenker du ned til 74k? Ser jo veldig ut som den vil dit spør du meg…

#6076

Det er ikke så mye at den vil ned der. Det faktum at den ikke er der nå vitner om det. Men det finnes veldig sterk støtte der. Det som styrer kursen nå i dag er vel aksjemarkedet. Og Kinas toll mot Canada. En utvikling som skremmer folk til å selge.

1 Like
#6077

Skjønner. Takk for svar!

#6078

Som jeg nevnte tidligere, forventet en retest av bunn pga. volumet som kom på første dip.

Retest kom og lagde en “higher low”, men denne er nå tatt ut av et nytt push til nedsiden med økt volum.

Forløpige rally har komt med avtagende moment ,samt avtagende volum og “lower high.”

Så langt ikke et chart som roper kjøp.

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Har og printet en ny weekly bar.

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3 Likes