What do you think will be Desert Control stock price one year from now ?
What we know / key factors
Here’s a summary of relevant data and risks for Desert Control (ticker DSRT , listed in Norway / Oslo) as of late 2025:
Recent performance & fundamentals:
- In Q2 2025, Desert Control reported very weak revenue (≈ $128,000) vs. forecasts of $4 million — a huge shortfall. Investing.com India
- The company has a high cash burn rate; its cash reserves are being depleted. Investing.com India+1
- In Q1 2025, revenue was NOK 1.59 million, missing forecasts; net loss and negative EBITDA remain. Investing.com India
- The company is making strategic shifts, e.g. consolidating R&D in the U.S. and maintaining production engineering in Norway. Euronext Live
- Analysts’ forecasts show extremely wide ranges. For example, one consensus estimate gives a 12‑month target of NOK 7.50 (which from current levels implies large upside) Investing.com+1
- Another source (Alpha Spread) lists targets between NOK 7.58 and NOK 10.5, with an average near NOK 8.93. www.alphaspread.com
- But look at the current price: DSRT is trading very low relative to its past high (52‑week range includes up to NOK ~8.40) and has declined massively. Investing.com+1
What could drive the price up — or drag it down
To estimate one year ahead, we need to consider what might happen by late 2026.
Upside drivers:
- If Desert Control can dramatically improve execution and generate real commercial revenue (especially in the U.S. and Middle East)
- If they can extend their cash runway (e.g. via financing, partnerships)
- If their technology proves scalable and cost‑effective, enabling meaningful adoption
- Favorable macro / policy tailwinds for water conservation / sustainable agriculture
Risks / downside:
- Continued revenue shortfalls
- Running out of cash before achieving scale
- Dilution from future equity issuances
- Technical, regulatory, or adoption barriers
- Market sentiment remaining skeptical
Given how speculative the stock already is (very high downside risk, and all the upside depends on successful execution), the forecast range is going to be wide.
A “best-guess” estimate
Given current trading levels (around NOK 1.40–1.60) and the possibility of either failure or breakthrough, a cautious but optimistic forecast might be:
- Base case : the stock might recover to NOK 4 to NOK 6 over the next year (assuming some progress)
- Bull case : if execution is excellent, it could reach NOK 7 to NOK 10+ (in line with some analyst targets)
- Bear case : it could stay flat or decline further, e.g. down toward NOK 1 or less , if things go poorly
If I have to pick a single point estimate (for you to use as a working “guess”), I’ll lean ~ NOK 5.00 one year from now — i.e. a modest but meaningful rebound (assuming they make progress but don’t hit “home run” outcomes).
If you like, I can run a scenario model (e.g. based on revenue growth, margins, cash burn) and give you a probabilistic forecast (e.g. 10th–90th percentile). Do you want me to do that?
Yes
Here’s a rough scenario / probabilistic model to help you frame what might happen with Desert Control (DSRT) over the next year. This is speculative and assumes no major black swan event. Use it more as a guide than a prediction.
Key inputs & assumptions (based on latest data)
Here are the critical financials / constraints I’ll use:
| Metric | Value / trend | Source / notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash at end Q2 2025 | ≈ NOK 24.84 million | Described in Q2 2025 report. |
| Cash runway (excluding incremental revenues) | Through Q4 2025 (i.e. ~6 more quarters) | The company warns that without new funding, liquidity is sufficient until late 2025. |
| Quarterly revenue recently | Very low / deeply missed expectations (Q2 2025 revenue ~$128,000) | |
| Historical losses / burn | EBITDA losses of ~ NOK 15–16 million per quarter (Q1 2025: – NOK 15.05M) | |
| Ambitious growth targets | The company projects >10× increase in contracted revenues in 2025 versus 2024. |
From Q1 & Q2 2025, the company is burning cash aggressively, and revenues are far from covering costs. The “inflection” depends heavily on whether they can land large contracts, convert pilots at scale, and/or raise fresh capital in time.
Given these, I’ll build three scenarios: bear , base , and bull .
Scenario modeling (12-month horizon)
Let’s define some parameters:
- Dilution risk / capital raise : high in all scenarios
- Revenue growth : from near-zero base, so growth assumptions are fragile
- Multiple (P/S or EV/sales) : for early-stage/loss-making companies, multiples are large and volatile
Scenario A — Bear / downside
- They fail to convert pilots into meaningful contracts
- They struggle or delay raising new capital
- Cash reserves dwindle faster; equity becomes more distressed
- The market continues to discount them heavily
Assumptions :
- Revenue by mid‑2026: NOK 10–20 million
- Losses still large (negative EBITDA)
- Further equity issuance, diluting existing holders
- Market multiple: 0.2× to 0.5× revenue (given high risk)
Implied valuation :
- If revenue = NOK 15 million, market multiple 0.3× → enterprise value ~ NOK 4.5 million
- After dilution / liabilities, share price could collapse
- Estimate range: NOK 0.5 to NOK 2.5
Scenario B — Base / modest recovery
- They manage to secure a few mid‑size contracts (golf courses, agricultural deployments)
- They partially raise capital early enough to maintain operations without extreme distress
- They improve costs and scale production (leveraging their next-gen LNC system)
- Investor sentiment begins to warm
Assumptions :
- Revenue by mid‑2026: NOK 50–100 million
- Losses reduce, maybe approaching break-even or modest profit by late 2026
- Capital raise dilutes, but manageable
- Market starts to value the business at ~1× to ~2× revenue
Implied valuation :
- If revenue = NOK 75 million, 1× multiple → NOK 75 million enterprise value
- Minus debt (which is small to none), but after dilution, say 15–25% dilution
- If outstanding shares increase, the per‑share value might land at ~ NOK 3 to NOK 8
Scenario C — Bull / breakout
- They land one or more large high-value contracts (e.g. major agricultural deployment, municipal landscaping, government programs)
- They execute flawlessly: scale, margins improve, recurring revenues via PAYS / licensing
- They raise capital on favorable terms, attracting institutional investors
- Sentiment shifts strongly, and growth multiples re‑rate
Assumptions :
- Revenue by mid‑2026: NOK 150–300 million
- They reach positive EBITDA, ideally net profit
- Market applies a higher multiple: 2× to 5× revenue (for a growth / tech / “impact” company)
Implied valuation :
- If revenue = NOK 200 million, 2× multiple → NOK 400 million enterprise value
- After dilution, per share value might be in NOK 10 to NOK 20+
Probabilistic weights & blended estimate
Given the significant risks, I’d assign rough subjective probabilities:
- Scenario A (bear): 35%
- Scenario B (base): 50%
- Scenario C (bull): 15%
If I convert that into an expected value range (in rough terms):
- Bear scenario midpoint: NOK 1.5
- Base scenario midpoint: NOK 5.5
- Bull scenario midpoint: NOK 14
Weighted average estimate =
0.35 × 1.5 + 0.50 × 5.5 + 0.15 × 14 = 0.525 + 2.75 + 2.1 = ~ NOK 5.38
So my blended, probabilistic guess is ~ NOK 5.00 to NOK 6.00 in 12 months — with a wide confidence interval (say 0.5 to 12 NOK ) depending on whether execution succeeds.
Key risks & caveats
- Dilution risk is very high. They must raise capital or find non-dilutive financing (grants, partnerships) to survive into late 2025.
- Execution risk : converting pilots to scalable contracts is non-trivial. Delays or underperformance could kill momentum.
- Market multiple risk : even with revenue growth, if investors remain skeptical, valuation multiples may stay depressed.
- Timing mismatches : The company might do a lot of “work” in 2025 but only see revenue recognized in 2026, shifting the growth to beyond your 12‑month window.
- Macro / regulatory risk : changes in subsidies, water regulation, competition, or material costs could materially affect outcomes.
If you like, I can run a Monte Carlo simulation (e.g. 1,000 trials) using distributions around revenue growth, dilution, and multiples — and give you a percentile distribution (10th, 50th, 90th) for the stock price in a year. Would you prefer I do that?
