Ja dette er langt fra noe nytt, spesielt for Argentina. De har vært gjennom dette mange ganger før.
Men selv de større asiatiske landene var gjennom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Asian_financial_crisis en valutakrise.
Media sier de nå har lært av krisen og problemet ikke vil kunne skje igjen.
Kanskje ikke like fælt som forrige gang, men den gang var det KUN de som var problemet. Hvordan blir det da når vi “rikingene” også går oss på en smell samtidig.
Her snakkes det om hvor solide reservene var/er?.
"India’s are set to hit a new high of $400 billion, enough to cover a year of imports, while holdings of international currencies in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Indonesia are all at record levels. China’s reserves – the world’s biggest – posted a seventh straight gain in August to $3.09 trillion, helping to reverse a near $1 trillion decline.
Steady capital inflows from yield hungry investors and the weaker dollar have swollen coffers, positioning Asia’s central banks to tackle any volatility triggered by the Federal Reserve’s plan to shrink its balance sheet – details of which are expected to be announced on Sept. 20. Indeed, central banks in India and Indonesia have been so confident in their inoculation from the Fed’s tightening that they both cut interest rates last month.
“It is a deliberate strategy to buttress defenses as the Fed looks set to withdraw liquidity, raising risks for capital flows into emerging markets,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. “Caution reigns.”
Asia’s central banks have good reason to be on their toes. A signal by then Chairman Ben Bernanke in 2013 of a curb to his huge bond buying program threatened to suck capital away from the region and piled downward pressure on currencies. The Reserve Bank of India was among the hardest hit in the ‘taper tantrum’ as speculators dumped the rupee"
Men indiske rupi har allerede blitt svekket betydelig de siste årene og spesielt ekstra nylig.
"According to latest data released by the trade ministry, India’s trade deficit hit a 5-year high of $18.02 billion in July, up 8.5 per cent month-on-month. This is mainly because of surging oil imports, which grew by over 57 per cent year-on-year to $12.35 billion. While total imports jumped 28.81 per cent to $43.79 billion, exports only went up by 14.32 per cent to $25.77 billion (year-on-year).
While the textbooks all claim that the depreciating rupee gives a boost to exports, the numbers tell a different story. According to Mint, India’s currency weakened around 22% per cent against the dollar between 2012 and 2017 and the compound annual growth rate in exports during the same period was a meagre 0.2 per cent. Given the news on the US-China trade war, the outlook for exports is far from bright.
The far-from-optimistic outlook on oil prices makes matters worse. Unless our exports pick up substantially, this may worsen the deficit even further. That will make the Rupee slide further, raise domestic inflation and may lead to tighter monetary policy from RBI by raising interest rates.
The combination of rising import bills and slow export growth has led to a worsening of India’s current account deficit (CAD). The latter has jumped from 0.6% of GDP in 2015-16 to close to 2% in 2017-18. And media reports peg CAD jumping to $22-31 billion in the current fiscal. That is again bad news for the rupee because a high deficit means the country has to sell rupees and buy dollars to pay its bills, which further reduces its value.
The widening trade deficit against the backdrop of growing global uncertainty is expected to keep exerting pressure on the rupee in the near term. "
Men det ser ikke ut til å bekymre sentralbanken deres så veldig mye, vertfall ennå. De tror det handler om Tyrkia og ikke deres egne problemer. Noe sannhet i det, men som jeg viste til ovenfor så har de underskudd og det hjelper ikke på.
Dollar og oljen har styrket seg og det går hardt utover Indias handelbalanse.
Men det er heller ikke bare det som er grunnen, derfor reagerer markedet.
"Could it be that our exports are not competitive? Well, between 2013-14 and 2017-18, our non-oil merchandise exports increased from $252 billion to $266 billion. That’s a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 1.36%. It’s not their finest hour.
How did our non-oil, non-gold imports fare over the same period? They moved up from $252 billion to $319 billion. That’s a CAGR of 6.07%, well above the rate of growth of non-oil exports. It is this trend that is responsible for the ballooning of the trade deficit."
"This increase in the trade deficit would have been of less concern if it was the result of a boom in imports of capital goods. But it is consumption rather than investment that has driven both economic growth and imports in India in the last few years. That is not a healthy trend.
What of the future? Financing the current account deficit will be more difficult, due to our dependence on portfolio inflows and in view of monetary tightening in the US. Vulnerable emerging market currencies are already facing the heat. And with the opening salvos in a global trade war now being fired, the risks are rising for the external sector."
Til andre nyheter.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-31/are-house-prices-falling-from-sydney-to-new-york
Viktig få med seg at mange større vestlige byer nå har gått ned betydelig og det er et stort faretegn for økonomiene våre.
Mange steder opplever at volumet har avtatt og tilbudssiden vokser. Det brygger altså opp til et raskt fall flere steder.
Australia har strammet inn i kreditten og “But there is still about $360 billion worth of interest-only loans due to mature over the next three years.”
Dvs en hel hau med Australiere må begynne betal avdrag, på en bolig som nå raser ned i verdi. Hvor mange kommer til å selge for å vær tidlig ute?
Australia har på lik linje med oss hatt en oppgang som har vart i nærmere 30 år, etter et lite dipp under finanskrisen tok de fart videre opp akkurat som oss.
Nå strammes det inn og det vil snu fryktelig raskt når folk våkner opp og innser hva de har begitt seg ut på. De har samme tankegang som oss at bolig kun går opp i verdi, dermed har det ikke vært noe problem med 5 år uten avdrag o.l ordninger, kun for å komme seg inn.
Mange har jo investert i ekstra leiligheter for utleie/spekulasjon ettersom det var enkelt få avdragsfritt.
Nå jobber bankene med å overbevise kundene til å begynne med avdrag eller fastrente, men tenk over hvordan effekten av lavere boligbygging/investering + mye mindre forbruk som følge av økte avdragskostnader. Avdrag bidrar jo ingenting til økonomien, så det vil få rask effekt på BNP. Samtidig som Australia er ett av landene som er mest knyttet til Kina og derfor er mest utsatt nå fremover.
Svenskene har ikke hentet seg inn så godt som vi gjorde etter vårt fall i fjor.
Spent på om fallet vårt tiltar nå til høsten, det er jo typisk at vi har oppgang tidlig på året og nedgang på slutten.