Russians’ fear of new mobilization reaches its highest level in almost a year
The invasion of the Ukrainian army into the Kursk region, which has been going on for the fourth week, contrary to the promises of the generals, has significantly increased the concern of Russian citizens about the threat of a new mobilization.
According to the Levada Center , in August 46% of Russians feared that the authorities could again declare a mass conscription for war in order to replenish the army fighting in Ukraine.
The share of those who do not rule out a new mobilization is almost equal to the share of citizens who do not have such fears (48%). For comparison: back in February, the latter were almost twice as many as the former - 34% of respondents feared a new mobilization, while 59% did not expect it.
The level of “mobilization fear” in society has reached its maximum since September last year, according to Levada data: then 59% of Russians feared a repeat of the mass conscription for war. In the first days of the war, in February 2022, the overwhelming majority of Russians — 66% — were confident that the Kremlin would get by with the regular army. Only 28% of those polled by Levada took the threat of mobilization seriously.
Sociologists predictably recorded the highest level of concerns about the possibility of a new mobilization in August 2024 among young people: 55% of respondents in the 18-24 age group and 50% among those aged 25 to 39. Pensioners are the least afraid of mobilization (41%), while they are the ones who consider it “necessary” to the greatest extent: 20% versus 12% among young people (18-24 years old).
In addition, those who fear a possible general mobilization are more likely than others to be those who believe that things in the country are going down the wrong path (60%); those who do not approve of Vladimir Putin’s activities as president (58%); those who trust information from YouTube channels (54%), and those who do not support the actions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine (55%), according to Levada sociologists.
To compensate for losses in Ukraine, which, according to Western data, have exceeded 500 thousand people killed and wounded, the army needs about 30 thousand people per month, Bloomberg sources close to the Kremlin told in August.
The authorities rely on the machine of recruiting “volunteers” and contract soldiers, offering one-time payments of millions of rubles. But despite the fact that the federal bonus for recruits was increased from 195 to 400 thousand rubles, and regional bonuses increased by 15 times on average, it is not possible to fulfill the recruitment plan: the regions are falling short of about a third of the quota sent down to them from Moscow, a Bloomberg source claims.
According to the agency’s interlocutors, this may force the Kremlin to go for a new mobilization by the end of this year. It may be presented as a rotation of previously mobilized soldiers, the sources claim.
In the coming year, to cover losses and carry out the rotation, the army will need up to 500 thousand people, estimates Alexander Isakov, an economist for Russia at Bloomberg Economics. The current recruitment mechanisms will not provide such a number of people, so it is most likely that the Kremlin will use conscripts, the expert believes.
Etter at Ukraina angrep Kursk, så har de russiske tapene som rapportert av Ukraina gått opp fra rundt 1000 om dagen til 12-1400. Så rundt 30% oppgang. Det fører i så fall til at Russland er i manko på rundt 110k folk i året. Dvs at hæren deres vil minske i størrelse.
Sååå, da blir det nok mobilisering, men så er det ikke så populært da.
