https://x.com/joni_askola/status/1835954267321950227
1/16 Imperial russia is racing against time in Ukraine: Budanov’s recent remarks reveal a degree of realistic optimism
3/16 Budanov expresses significant concern over north korean supplies to russia, asserting that north korea is by far the largest military supplier. The volumes provided by north korea is unparalleled.
4/16 Budanov believes that russia intends to wrap up the war by the end of 2025 or early 2026, aiming for a victory. He notes that russia will encounter considerable economic difficulties beginning in the summer of 2025.
5/16 “If russia fails to achieve victory by that time, it will forfeit its long-term goal of being viewed as a superpower over the next 30 years,” Budanov stated, citing russian intelligence sources.
6/16 russia expects “all their problems will begin in the summer of 2025,” as financial, economic, and socio-political factors converge. Although it is managing the worsening situation, russia acknowledges that the already severe economic situation is deepening.
9/16 Budanov also believes that war fatigue in russia is gradually becoming evident, as the conflict has already affected a substantial portion of the russian population.
10/16 russia’s severe labor shortage, coupled with rising public spending and sanctions, has resulted in high inflation and a 19% key interest rate, both of which will significantly harm the economy and reduce investments. russia’s key interest rate was at only 7,5% in June 2023
11/16 As stated by Budanov, recruitment is becoming increasingly difficult for russia, which must continue raising salaries and signing bonuses to attract enough personnel for its war efforts. A new mobilization might be needed in the future.
14/16 Budanov’s statement confirms that russia is running out of time and cannot sustain the war in the long term. Currently, russia is attempting to establish facts on the ground, but the Ukrainian defense is proving to be much more capable than Moscow had anticipated.
15/16 Additionally, the Kursk operation has significantly worsened the situation for russia, more than many realize. It shattered the belief among many in russia that the country is a superpower and demonstrated that Ukraine can still make advances despite its limited resources.
Verdt å lese resten også. Interessant å lese at inflasjonen er et mye større problem nå enn i 2023, med renten satt opp fra 7,5% til 19% (!). Det er ikke akkurat tegnet på en økonomi som fungerer.
Kommentaren på slutten angående Kursk er vel artikkelforfatteren sin mening, men jeg tenker det er mye sannhet i den også. Så lenge krigen stort sett kun ble utkjempet i Ukraina, så kunne den jevne russer nok tenke at de hadde overtaket, men når Ukraina kan ta 800km2 av Russland og muligens dobler det de neste ukene, så tenker de seg nok om to ganger…
– Mine bønner blev hørt 
