En like god teori om ting som noe annet jeg har skrevet eller lest her, men helt anderledes.
Who told you that Putin is anyhow interested in “peace,” “a diplomatic solution,” or even “freezing the war” that would give him anything but the complete destruction of Ukraine?
Who said he wanted to end the war?
If the war “stops” along “today’s front lines,” it would mean that Russia, as a result of the largest European war since WWII, failed to seize and keep not a single Ukrainian regional capital.
Putin keeps only less than 20% of Ukraine’s territory (which includes Crimea and Donbas, seized as far back in time as in 2014-2015), and a large part of that is a lifeless wasteland of completely ruined cities and towns that are gone forever. And that result of useless flag-pinning and map-painting in the Kremlin war room will never get international recognition as Russian territory.
Free Ukraine stays independent, pro-Western, and democratic and continues with its reforms to be an EU member and a major European military power.
Given Putin’s megalomanic plans of conquering and annexing the entire Ukraine and his self-assured grimace from 2022, that would be a disastrous outcome. Simply put, it would be Russia’s unspeakably shameful, historic defeat.
Even if you twist Ukraine’s arms into giving Putin the entirety of four regions, none of which are still fully captured after three years of total war, that would be a dumb “victory.”
Especially if we remember that Putin ditched about 150,000 Russians dead for that and that he burned down a colossal share of Russia’s overall military potential and its bottomless Soviet stocks (3,500 MBTs and close to 5,000 IFVs!!) and fell into dire dependence on China and his totalitarian allies.
Why would he want to stop the war?
Putin has ultimately made war his principal instrument of absolute power over Russia. Russia is getting back to its totalitarian state of a fortress under siege in infinite confrontation with the West. Confrontation for the sake of confrontation. He made war a lucrative source of wealth for his oligarchic cronies.
As long as the war machine keeps rattling, way too many “ordinary Russians” are getting crazy money they would never ever earn with honest work in their entire lives thanks to wartime production.
The Russian people are so corrupted by this demonic influence of blood money and hateful propaganda, and their will so deeply suppressed, that they choose to ignore how enormous cemeteries have been growing across Russia for three years now and prefer not to think about the nightmare this bloody revelry will lead to in the future.
A handout to the destitute family follows every dead body coming to a distant Russian town, so most Russians feel okay about that.
Putin is not interested in hundreds of thousands of Russian men — broken, angered, addicted to violence, trained to kill, traumatized, and now unemployed — getting back to their cities and towns with no well-paid jobs or any perspectives for the future after the war.
Just like numerous veterans of the Soviet-Afghan war before them, they will immediately unleash a wave of organized crime that will make the 1990s seem like a walk in the park.
Putin is not thinking about tomorrow.
Look at his face - he’s absolutely enjoying his new role now.
The initial shock of the 2022 blitzkrieg failure is gone, and Western “escalation management” gave him enough time to recover, hold on to power, find allies, and switch to infinite war as a new phase of his rule. Putin is not really interested in dealing with Russia’s boring domestic issues.
He’s having sick enjoyment in moving divisions on maps and deciding on the fate of nations as if he’s the new Stalin.
Moreover, his units are moving forward and pushing Ukrainian forces back in Donbas. Yes, he’s burning away giant quantities of lives and vehicles all across the front line for inadequate territorial gains. But Putin doesn’t care.
His war propaganda on TV and on the internet keeps demonstrating Russian flags put over lifeless ruins of former Ukrainian villages and towns, for the sake of which entire battalions died, and that’s fine.
It’s a war to keep the mechanism of power running for as long as possible. There’s no need for a clear final objective. If Ukraine is gone, there will be someone else to be declared “not a real country” and “a Nazi regime.”
Yes, Russia’s economy is overheated due to immense war spending, and there’s a threat of stagflation. Russia’s Soviet-era military stocks may end up being largely exhausted around 2026, while Russia’s own production does not keep up with war front losses.
But who cares? Putin is not thinking about tomorrow. Putin’s totalitarian rogue allies are all but obsessed with “escalation management,” and they sell him a lot of ammo and weapons.
As we know, the Kim regime, apart from millions of artillery rounds, has recently sent some 10,000 soldiers and officers to assist Russia against Ukraine and get highly valuable modern warfare experience that may be of great use against South Korea.
Who knows what Putin will get next while the leading power of the free world is embroiled in the wildest conspiracy theories, blaming Ukraine for the war, and Europe can’t get things together for three years?
The best thing Putin can agree on is nothing but a short respite that he will use to rearm, recoup his losses, and resume the war with renewed vigor.
He’s not interested in anything but effectively an unconditional Ukrainian surrender — Ukraine out of NATO forever, the Ukrainian military effectively dissolved, Ukraine paying reparations and accepting Russia’s massive military presence on its territory (yes, the lost paradise of “the Istanbul peace” that David Sacks keeps crying for).
And Putin is not interested in any promises of Ukraine “staying out of NATO for at least 20 years” because he was never afraid of NATO.
He only fears Ukraine in NATO because it means no more marches on Kyiv.
And forcing Ukraine into surrender that will be followed by an even more catastrophic war in Europe is neither “peace” nor a “diplomatic solution” or “compromise.”
