Russia is struggling to increase arms production against a tide of permanently growing costs and a shortage of human and financial resources. Without a ceasefire, the Kremlin will face deeper imbalances in its domestic political economy and become strategically weaker.
2025 will be the last year Russia can rely on its massive stockpiles of Soviet-era conventional arms, including artillery, main battle tanks and armored vehicles.
If the intensity of combat, and consequent Russian losses, follow the same pattern as 2022–2024, most stockpiles will be exhausted by the second half of the year, forcing Moscow to rely on newly manufactured arms rather than repaired and modernized ones.
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Manpower shortages on the frontline and at home, the difficulty of manufacturing, and runaway budgets, makes Russia increasingly vulnerable to the continuing war of attrition with Ukraine.
The Kremlin’s strategic threat could be weakened, if not eliminated, if in the long-term Ukraine is able to maintain and the increase military pressure on its invaders.
Russland vakler økonomisk, et særdeles dårlig tidspunkt nå å inngå en (dårlig) forhandlingsløsning med Russland. Mot slutten av året kan situasjonen være en helt annen.
