Diskusjon Triggere Porteføljer Aksjonærlister

Russland/Ukraina, historisk bakgrunn og langsiktige konsekvenser av krigen

Synes følgende er interessant som bakteppe på hvilke strategiske vurderinger som gjøres i Ukrainakrigen. Og det er om vannressurser.

" The construction preparation started in 1957 soon after the transfer of Crimea of 1954"

( The transfer of the Crimean Oblast in 1954 was an administrative action of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, which transferred the government of the Crimean Peninsula from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian SSR.)

I dag:

"One of the first actions that Russian forces took in the early days of the invasion was to blow up a dam on the North Crimean Canal in the Kherson region.

The dam had been built by Ukraine in 2014 to cut off water to Crimea, following Russia’s illegal annexation of the region."

At den dammen skulle blir bombet av russerne var noe Ukraina fryktet ville skje, som rapportert like før krigens utbrudd den 20. februar i år.

“Now, with Russian forces massed around Ukraine, the canal has become a source of anxiety: Ukrainian officials fear that it could be an objective in a new military invasion.”

“The concern is really high, because the canal itself and the supply of water to Crimea have been a tactical objective of the Russians since 2014,” said Dmytro Natalukha, a Ukrainian MP who is chair of the country’s parliamentary Economic Affairs Committee."

Og US så også hvorfor dette var et strategisk viktig mål for russerne.

"The U.S., too, has seen the canal as an important Russian target. Last year, Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, who retired after serving as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2014 to 2017, described a Russian military offensive scenario in which “humanitarian forces” are dispatched “to relieve the water problem, which would of course be a pretext for an invasion of southern Ukraine.”

Russerne ser selvsagt annerledes på det, deres utgangspunkt er at Krim-halvøya er russisk.

“Russian authorities have also accused Ukraine of committing “ecocide” and “genocide” by closing off the canal.”

Og sjekker man hvordan russisk media beskriver bombingen av den Ukrainske dammen, så er som sagt vinklingen en annen.

“The North Crimean Canal has begun to fill with water,”
" After Russia took control of Crimea in 2014, Russian officials took over the canal facilities, which had been owned and operated by the State Water Resources Agency of Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian authorities did not pay for water delivery, and subsequently Ukraine dammed up the canal."
" A 2015 study in a Russian journal reports that 85% of the water in Crimea came via the canal, of which 72% was used for agriculture, 10% for industry, and 18% for drinking water and other public needs."

Derfor er området mellom Dnipr-elva (fra Kherson til Zaporizjzja) og Krim-halvøya og Azov-havet, strategisk og ressursmessig viktig. Som forklart her med vannressurser, men også fordi svært mye av hveten i Ukraina dyrkes her.

Hvis man ønsker en liten titt på hvor vannet fra denne kanalen “ender”, kan man sjekke følgende youtube-video ( Life inside Putins Crimea) fra Vice fra 2019, tidslinje 4:40 til 5:20

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:point_up_2::point_up_2::point_up_2:

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En konsekvens av krigen: gratis reklameplass i Russland. Her brukte det sikkert å være et eller annet selskap som nå har trukket seg ut av Russland som boltret seg.

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kilde til mer https://twitter.com/sgodofsk/status/1515843336539721728

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Lang og meget lesverdig twittertråd omhandlende hvorfor Tyskland tydelig holder igjen på sanksjoner mot Russland og våpenstøtte til Ukraina.

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Vet sikkert alle her er oppegående nok til å ikke bli lurt av så dårlig photoshop, men dog greit å få avkreftet noe feilinformasjon :slight_smile: Her er det kun snakk om et av bildene som er brukt av blant annet steigan-siden: Bilde av brennende krigsskip er falskt. Faktisk.

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Da er det bedre å bruke de faktiske bildene

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Mengden beviser på regelrett folkemord er såpass overveldene nå at jeg lurer litt på hvordan mange av de som støttet putin i krigens første dager føler seg nå.

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Ser at rublen stiger med over 5% i dag, googla litt, og ser at The Telegraph har denne på live streamen sin akkurat nå.

"The EU has admitted countries may be able to comply with Putin’s demand for gas payments in roubles without breaching sanctions against Russia.

Putin has demanded that so-called “unfriendly” nations open accounts at sanctioned lender Gazprombank, where payments in euros or dollars would be converted into roubles.

The European Commission has refused to comply with the order and initially said doing so would fall foul of sanctions. It’s now backed down on this claim, although the bloc said it wasn’t clear how such a procedure would work.

It came as the UK issued a temporary licence allowing payments to Gazprombank for gas used in the EU until the end of May."

Hvordan kan EU plutselig snu på dette? Mulig EU “har rett” her, men umiddelbart virker jo dette konter-produktivt på sanksjonene, eller?
Vet heller ikke om det er dette som gir rublen gass i dag.

Samtidig finner jeg ikke informasjon om dette andre steder, og ser jeg på Bloombergs nyheter virker historien å være en annen, denne er 3 timer gammel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/ruble-s-world-defying-rally-may-be-in-last-days-as-default-looms

" Ruble’s World-Defying Rally May Be in Last Days as Default Looms

  • Currency jumps as much as 71% from all-time low in March

  • Currency’s strength ‘man-made’ and won’t last: Wells Fargo"

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Ikke så rart Russland bare trodde de kunne rulle inn i Ukraina?

Tja…

Russia getting paid for gas in their currency would at best help marginally in getting around financial sanctions, propping up the ruble’s value or protecting the Russian economy, said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University and a former official at the International Monetary Fund.
“Either Putin is getting terrible economic advice or he is going further off the rails in his hatred for the West,’” Prasad said. ``It would be cheaper for foreign importers to pay for Russia’s exports in a currency that is collapsing in value, but it is difficult to acquire rubles and make payments in a manner that avoids the sanctions."

In theory, requiring ruble payments could support demand for the currency and its exchange rate. But not by much, Prasad says. As it stands, euros and dollars are already being used to purchase rubles when Gazprom exchanges its foreign earnings.

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Kan være interessant å se!

<Wagner - Russlands lovløse hær> on NRK2 (NO,NO) 21:55 Tirsdag via Redirecting...

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En potensiell uppercut som med andre ord DRITER ut det russiske luftforsvaret.

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Har du link?

Øst?

Edit: vanligvis sindige Mood har sluppet seg løs på twitter i dag, tydelig agitert

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Mer enn 50% sjanse for atomkrig.